Geopolitical Briefing: North Africa
4 May 2025
- Mass protests in Morocco target strategic ports, demanding an end to ties with Israel.
- Tunisia witnesses rival rallies amid deepening political polarization under President Saied.
- Libya’s UN-backed panel finalizes proposals to resolve electoral deadlock.
- IMF downgrades 2025 economic growth forecast for MENA region to 2.6%.
- Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya advance plans for regional electrical interconnection project.(The Washington Post, Asharq Al-Awsat, Reuters, Reuters, Maghrebi.org)
In Morocco, public opposition to the government’s normalization of relations with Israel has intensified, with recent protests focusing on strategic ports. Demonstrators, including members of major labor unions and Islamist movements, have called for the cessation of military shipments potentially destined for Israel. The government’s justification—that ties with Israel enable mediation and aid to Gaza—has done little to appease critics who view the normalization as a betrayal of the Palestinian cause. This growing unrest highlights the tension between Morocco’s foreign policy decisions and public sentiment, potentially impacting the nation’s internal stability and its relations within the broader Muslim world.(AP News)
Tunisia experienced significant political demonstrations on May 1, 2025, with supporters and opponents of President Kais Saied staging rival rallies in the capital, Tunis. Opponents accused Saied of authoritarianism and manipulating the judiciary to silence dissent, while supporters asserted national sovereignty and affirmed support for the president. These protests underscore the deepening political divide in Tunisia and raise concerns about the country’s democratic trajectory and internal cohesion. (Reuters)
In Libya, the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) announced that its advisory committee has finalized a set of proposals aimed at resolving the country’s prolonged electoral impasse. The committee’s work is expected to facilitate political consensus and unify national institutions, which have been divided since the failure of the planned December 2021 elections. The success of these proposals is crucial for Libya’s political stability and its ability to assert greater control over its internal affairs. (Reuters)
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its 2025 economic growth forecast for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region downward to 2.6%, citing factors such as lower oil prices, trade tariffs, and declining foreign aid. This downgrade reflects the economic vulnerabilities of the region, particularly for oil-importing countries, and underscores the need for structural reforms and diversification to achieve sustainable growth and economic independence. (AP News)
Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya are collaborating on an electrical interconnection project aimed at preventing summer blackouts and enhancing energy security across North Africa. This initiative represents a significant step toward regional integration and cooperation, potentially reducing reliance on external energy sources and strengthening the collective infrastructure of these nations. (Maghrebi.org)
