Geopolitical Briefing: Pakistan
4 May 2025
- Pakistan test-fired the Abdali ballistic missile amid escalating tensions with India following the Pahalgam attack.
- India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, threatening Pakistan’s critical water supply and intensifying bilateral hostilities.
- Russia offered to mediate between India and Pakistan over the Kashmir dispute, highlighting the region’s volatility.
- China reaffirmed its commitment to Pakistan’s sovereignty and continued investment in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
- Pakistan’s military faces a critical ammunition shortage, limiting its capacity for sustained conflict.(Politico, CSIS, China Pakistan Economic Corridor)
On May 3, Pakistan conducted a test launch of the Abdali Weapon System, a surface-to-surface ballistic missile with a 280-mile range. This demonstration of military readiness comes in response to India’s accusations that Pakistan was involved in the April 22 Pahalgam attack, which resulted in 26 deaths. India has since suspended key diplomatic and economic relations, including banning Pakistani imports and halting mail exchanges. The missile test serves as a strategic signal of Pakistan’s defense capabilities amid rising tensions. (Politico)
India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, a critical agreement governing water sharing between the two nations, poses a significant threat to Pakistan’s water security. The treaty’s suspension could lead to water shortages, affecting agriculture and daily life in Pakistan. This move exacerbates existing hostilities and underscores the strategic importance of water resources in the region. (The Week)
In an effort to de-escalate the situation, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov offered to mediate between India and Pakistan regarding the Kashmir dispute. Russia’s historical ties with India and its growing relationship with Pakistan position it as a potential intermediary. However, the effectiveness of such mediation remains uncertain given the deep-rooted tensions and recent escalations. (Reuters)
China has reaffirmed its strong support for Pakistan’s sovereignty and development, emphasizing the progress of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Chinese Ambassador Jiang Zaidong highlighted China’s readiness to align Belt and Road Initiative cooperation with Pakistan’s national development plans. This partnership underscores China’s strategic interest in Pakistan as a key regional ally. (China Pakistan Economic Corridor)
Despite these developments, Pakistan’s military preparedness faces challenges due to a critical shortage of artillery ammunition. Reports indicate that Pakistan’s artillery reserves can sustain only four days of high-intensity conflict, a situation exacerbated by economic constraints and arms deals with Ukraine. This limitation could impact Pakistan’s ability to engage in prolonged military operations. (The New Indian Express)
