Geopolitical Briefing: Sub-Saharan Africa
4 May 2025(MDPI)
- Mali’s national conference proposes extending junta leader Assimi Goita’s rule for five years and dissolving political parties, signaling a shift towards entrenched military governance.
- Burkina Faso witnesses mass rallies supporting the military junta following a foiled coup attempt and criticism from the U.S., highlighting growing anti-Western sentiment.
- South Africa’s manufacturing sector contracts for the sixth consecutive month, with the PMI falling to 44.7 in April, reflecting economic challenges amid global trade tensions.
- The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) sees intensified clashes between government forces and rebel groups, with significant territorial losses and civilian displacements.
- Uganda’s opposition accuses President Museveni of using military courts to suppress dissent ahead of the 2026 elections, raising concerns over judicial independence.(AP News, AP News, Reuters, The Guardian)
In Mali, a national political conference convened by the ruling military regime recommended appointing junta leader Assimi Goita as president for a renewable five-year term and dissolving existing political parties . This move consolidates military authority and diminishes the role of civilian political structures. By sidelining political parties and extending military rule, Mali distances itself from Western democratic models, potentially fostering closer ties with regional allies that prioritize security and sovereignty over liberal democratic norms.(AP News)
Burkina Faso experienced large-scale demonstrations in support of the ruling military junta after a failed coup attempt and allegations from the U.S. regarding misuse of gold reserves . The public’s display of solidarity with the junta and anti-American sentiment underscores a growing preference for self-determined governance and resistance to external influence. This environment may encourage the strengthening of regional alliances that emphasize mutual security and economic cooperation free from Western intervention.(AP News)
South Africa’s manufacturing sector continued its decline, with the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index dropping to 44.7 in April, marking the sixth consecutive month below the neutral 50-point mark . Factors contributing to this downturn include global trade tensions, domestic political instability, and infrastructure challenges like power outages. The sustained economic contraction may prompt South Africa to seek diversified trade partnerships and reinforce internal economic policies that prioritize national interests over global dependencies.(Reuters)
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) witnessed intensified conflict as government forces clashed with rebel groups, notably the M23, leading to significant territorial losses and civilian displacements . The withdrawal of South African peacekeeping troops from the region further complicates the security landscape . These developments highlight the challenges of maintaining national sovereignty and security in the face of internal insurgencies and the limitations of external military support.(AP News, AP News)
In Uganda, the opposition has accused President Yoweri Museveni of employing military courts to suppress political dissent ahead of the 2026 elections, despite a Supreme Court ruling deeming the practice unconstitutional . The government’s insistence on prosecuting civilians in military tribunals raises concerns about the erosion of judicial independence and the consolidation of executive power. Such actions may lead to increased domestic unrest and strain relations with international partners advocating for democratic governance.(The Guardian)
