Geopolitical Briefing: Lebanon
11 May 2025
- Israel conducted its most intense airstrikes in southern Lebanon since the 2024 ceasefire, targeting Hezbollah infrastructure and causing civilian casualties.
- The Lebanese army expanded its deployment in the south, dismantling Hezbollah positions and asserting state authority in previously contested areas.
- Lebanon’s Higher Defense Council issued a stern warning to Hamas against launching attacks from Lebanese territory, following recent rocket incidents.
- President Joseph Aoun reaffirmed that Hezbollah will not be forcibly disarmed but suggested integration into the Lebanese Armed Forces through dialogue.(Reuters, The Washington Post, AP News, The Washington Institute)
On May 8, 2025, Israel launched a series of heavy airstrikes in southern Lebanon, marking one of the most intense bombardments since the previous year’s Israeli-Hezbollah war ended with a U.S.-brokered ceasefire. The Israeli military reported targeting a Hezbollah infrastructure site, though the group offered no immediate response. The Lebanese Health Ministry confirmed at least one fatality and eight injuries, with attacks focusing on the Nabatieh region. These strikes underscore Israel’s ongoing efforts to neutralize Hezbollah’s military capabilities and assert control over contested border areas. The Lebanese government’s limited response reflects the complex balance between maintaining national sovereignty and managing internal divisions over Hezbollah’s role.(Reuters)
In a significant move to reassert state authority, the Lebanese army has significantly expanded its presence in southern Lebanon as part of a U.S.-brokered ceasefire agreement with Israel aimed at curbing Hezbollah’s military activities near the Israeli border. Over the past few months, the army deployed 1,500 additional troops, bringing the southern force to 6,000, with plans to reach 10,000. Lebanese forces have dismantled over 500 Hezbollah sites and confiscated arms, efforts overseen by a U.S.-led international committee receiving target coordinates from Israel and U.N. peacekeepers. This expansion enhances Lebanon’s control over its security infrastructure and demonstrates a commitment to reducing the influence of non-state actors in border regions.(The Washington Post)
On May 2, 2025, Lebanon’s Higher Defense Council issued a stern warning to Hamas and other militant factions, stating they would face the “harshest measures” if they launched attacks against Israel from Lebanese territory. This announcement follows recent incidents in which Lebanese and Palestinian individuals were detained for allegedly firing rockets into northern Israel. By taking a firm stance against unauthorized militant actions, the Lebanese government aims to prevent further escalations and maintain control over its territory, aligning with broader efforts to assert national sovereignty and reduce external influences.(AP News)
President Joseph Aoun announced that Beirut would not forcibly disarm the Iran-backed Shiite militia Hezbollah as part of its effort to gain a state monopoly on weapons. Instead, Aoun said Hezbollah would be convinced to give up its arms on its own, through dialogue and negotiations. Moreover, the president suggested the militia’s troops could then be integrated into the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). This approach reflects a strategic attempt to balance internal political dynamics while gradually bringing all armed groups under state control, thereby enhancing Lebanon’s political independence and reducing the influence of foreign-backed entities.(The Washington Institute)
