Geopolitical Briefing: Sub-Saharan Africa
11 May 2025
- M23 rebels advance into South Kivu’s mining zones, prompting South Africa’s troop withdrawal from the DRC.
- Mali’s junta bans political activity amid growing civil unrest and deepening ties with Russia.
- Angola faces a $200 million margin call from JPMorgan, highlighting the region’s debt vulnerabilities.
- US-led peace talks between Congo and Rwanda raise concerns over mineral exploitation and sovereignty.
- Moody’s warns of indirect impacts on African banks due to China’s economic slowdown and US tariffs.(Wikipedia, AP News, Reuters, Reuters)
In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), M23 rebels, allegedly supported by Rwanda, have expanded their control into South Kivu’s mineral-rich territories, including the Luhwinja Chiefdom. This incursion has disrupted operations at key mining sites, such as Twangiza, previously managed by Chinese-aligned entities. Simultaneously, South Africa has initiated the withdrawal of its troops from the Southern African Development Community Mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC), signaling a shift in regional security dynamics and potentially reducing foreign military influence in the area. (Wikipedia)
Mali’s military government, led by General Assimi Goïta, has suspended all political party activities indefinitely, citing public order concerns. This move follows pro-democracy protests and a proposed bill to dissolve political parties, which critics argue aims to extend Goïta’s tenure. The junta’s alignment with Russia, including the expulsion of French and UN forces and the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States with Burkina Faso and Niger, reflects a strategic pivot away from Western influence and towards alternative security partnerships. (AP News, El País)
Angola’s financial stability has come under scrutiny following a $200 million margin call by JPMorgan on a $1 billion loan structured through a Total Return Swap. This arrangement, intended to avoid adding new debt to Angola’s official accounts, has exposed the country’s vulnerability to market fluctuations. With over half of its budget directed to debt repayment and critical government spending on social services reduced by 55% since 2015, Angola is considering a new IMF deal amid depressed oil prices and weak economic growth. (Reuters)
The United States has facilitated a draft peace proposal between Congo and Rwanda, aiming to resolve the ongoing conflict in eastern Congo. While the initiative seeks to stabilize the region, there are concerns that it may prioritize U.S. access to critical minerals like cobalt, gold, and copper over genuine peacebuilding efforts. Critics argue that such involvement could exacerbate issues related to violence and exploitation in the mining sector, undermining local sovereignty and control over natural resources. (AP News)
Moody’s has issued a warning that sub-Saharan African banks may face indirect repercussions from U.S. import tariffs due to potential macroeconomic shifts and a cooling Chinese economy. As China is a significant export market for African commodities, a slowdown could lead to reduced export volumes and prices, impacting trade-finance income for banks and constraining new lending capabilities. Additionally, increased investor risk aversion may lead to wider dollar-bond spreads, raising refinancing costs for African banks reliant on wholesale hard currency funding. (Reuters)
