Geopolitical Briefing: North Africa (Excluding Egypt)
19 May 2025
- Algeria and France engage in reciprocal diplomatic expulsions, intensifying tensions over Western Sahara and colonial legacies.
- Tunisia initiates a second mass trial against opposition figures, signaling a deepening authoritarian trajectory.
- Libya’s rival governments reject U.S. deportation plans, asserting sovereignty amid human rights concerns.
- Mauritania intercepts over 30,000 migrants and dismantles 88 smuggling networks, bolstering border security.
- Morocco and Mauritania deepen economic ties through revised trade agreements and energy cooperation.(Reuters, North Africa Post, The Washington Post, Ground News, North Africa Post)
Algeria and France have entered a diplomatic standoff, with France expelling Algerian diplomats in response to Algeria’s earlier expulsion of 15 French officials. The French Foreign Ministry described the move as “strict reciprocity,” urging Algeria to return to constructive dialogue. Tensions have been escalating due to disputes over immigration policy, colonial history, and France’s support for Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara—a region Algeria views as a remaining African colony and supports through the Polisario Front. This diplomatic fallout threatens significant trade relations and complicates travel for the large Algerian diaspora in France. (AP News)
In Tunisia, the government has initiated a second mass trial against nearly two dozen opposition figures accused of plotting against the state. This follows a previous trial that resulted in the imprisonment of approximately 40 individuals on similar charges. Human rights organizations have condemned these trials as politically motivated efforts to suppress dissent and consolidate President Kais Saied’s power. The erosion of judicial independence and suppression of civil liberties reflect a shift towards authoritarian governance, undermining democratic institutions and societal freedoms. (Arab News, trt.global)
Libya’s rival governments have firmly rejected reports of an agreement with the U.S. to accept deported migrants, emphasizing national sovereignty and denying any such deal exists. This response comes amid reports that the Trump administration is considering deporting migrants to Libya, a country plagued by political unrest and human rights abuses. A U.S. federal judge has ruled that deporting migrants to Libya would violate a prior court order requiring officials to assess the risk of persecution or torture before deporting individuals to countries other than their own. Libya’s unified stance against the deportation plans underscores its commitment to maintaining sovereignty and resisting external pressures that could exacerbate internal divisions and humanitarian crises. (WSJ, The Washington Post, Reuters)
Mauritania has intensified efforts to curb irregular migration, intercepting over 30,000 migrants and dismantling 88 smuggling networks between January and April 2025. These actions, supported by European Union cooperation, have led to a significant reduction in migrant arrivals to the Canary Islands. However, the crackdown has drawn criticism from human rights organizations, citing concerns over the treatment of migrants and potential abuses. Mauritania’s measures reflect a strategic balancing act between securing international support and addressing domestic and regional security challenges. (Ground News)
Morocco and Mauritania have strengthened economic ties through revised trade agreements and energy cooperation. The two countries have launched negotiations to update their 1986 trade agreement, aiming to boost bilateral trade to $350 million by the end of 2025. Additionally, they have signed a memorandum of understanding to expand cooperation in electricity and renewable energy. This partnership includes discussions on trade, infrastructure, and energy projects, signaling a potential shift in regional alliances. For Morocco, bolstering relations with Mauritania may serve to consolidate its position in Western Sahara, while Mauritania stands to benefit from economic diversification and increased investment. (North Africa Post, Bilateral.org, maroc.ma)
