Geopolitical Briefing: Pakistan
19 May 2025
- The ceasefire between Pakistan and India, brokered on 10 May, remains fragile amid mutual accusations of violations and ongoing military posturing.
- Pakistan’s Operation Bunyan al-Marsus continues to be a focal point of its military strategy, emphasizing resilience and deterrence.
- A critical shortage of artillery ammunition persists in Pakistan, limiting its capacity for sustained military engagement.
- China and Pakistan reaffirm their commitment to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), emphasizing economic cooperation and regional connectivity.(YouTube)
Following the 10 May ceasefire agreement between Pakistan and India, tensions remain high as both nations accuse each other of violations. India claims that Pakistan breached the ceasefire through drone incursions and artillery fire in Jammu and Kashmir, while Pakistan denies these allegations and asserts that Indian forces initiated the violations. The Indian Army has stated that the ceasefire agreement does not have an “expiry date,” emphasizing its commitment to maintaining peace along the Line of Control (LoC) . This ongoing tension underscores the fragile nature of the ceasefire and the deep-seated mistrust between the two countries.(The Guardian, The Times of India)
In response to India’s military actions, Pakistan launched Operation Bunyan al-Marsus on 10 May, targeting Indian military installations with drone and missile strikes. The operation’s name, derived from the Quran, symbolizes unity and resilience, reflecting Pakistan’s intent to demonstrate its defensive capabilities and resolve . This military initiative serves as a strategic signal of Pakistan’s commitment to defending its territorial integrity amid escalating tensions.(Wikipedia)
Despite these military maneuvers, Pakistan faces significant challenges in sustaining prolonged conflict due to a critical shortage of artillery ammunition. Reports indicate that Pakistan’s stockpile could support only four days of high-intensity warfare, a situation exacerbated by economic constraints and arms deals with Ukraine . This limitation raises concerns about Pakistan’s defense preparedness and its ability to engage in extended military operations.
Amid these developments, China has reaffirmed its strong support for Pakistan’s sovereignty and continued investment in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Chinese officials emphasized the strategic importance of CPEC in fostering regional connectivity and economic development, aligning with Pakistan’s national development plans . This partnership underscores China’s strategic interest in Pakistan as a key regional ally and provides Pakistan with critical economic support during periods of geopolitical uncertainty.(China Pakistan Economic Corridor)
