Geopolitical Briefing: Sub-Saharan Africa
19 May 2025
- Chad’s former Prime Minister Succès Masra arrested amid allegations of inciting deadly ethnic violence.
- South Africa faces a projected budget deficit of 4.70% of GDP, highlighting fiscal challenges.
- U.S. shifts Africa strategy from aid to trade, aiming to counter Chinese and Russian influence.
- Trump administration’s policies contribute to global anti-LGBTQ+ repression, impacting African communities.
- Libya’s capital, Tripoli, experiences deadly clashes following the killing of a prominent militia leader.(AP News, Reuters, Reuters, Them, The Guardian)
In Chad, former Prime Minister and opposition leader Succès Masra was arrested on May 16, 2025, for allegedly inciting violence that led to 42 deaths in Logone Occidental province. Authorities accuse Masra of using social media to encourage armed conflict between herders and farmers. His political party, Transformers, condemned the arrest as a “kidnapping” and shared footage of his detention by uniformed men. Masra’s arrest underscores the government’s crackdown on dissent and raises concerns about political repression and the erosion of democratic processes. (AP News)
South Africa’s National Treasury is expected to announce an increased budget deficit forecast of 4.70% of GDP for the 2025/26 fiscal year, higher than previous projections. The prediction reflects ongoing challenges in boosting tax revenue amid weak economic growth, with economists identifying sluggish growth—forecasted at just 1.5% for 2025—as a major risk to fiscal consolidation. Public finances remain strained with elevated spending and borrowing costs, while the gross debt-to-GDP ratio is estimated to rise to 77% in the new fiscal year. (Reuters)
The United States is shifting its Africa strategy from aid-based support to a focus on trade and commercial engagement. U.S. ambassadors in Africa will now be evaluated based on successful business deals rather than the amount of aid dispersed. This policy shift aims to foster mutual prosperity and reduce trade deficits, with the U.S. pledging a $550 million loan for the Lobito rail corridor to enhance critical mineral exports while bypassing Chinese-controlled routes. However, this strategic move is intended to counter Chinese and Russian influence on the continent. (Reuters)
Since Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency in 2025, a surge in global anti-LGBTQ+ repression has intensified, affecting communities from Africa to Eastern Europe. Human Rights Watch states that Trump’s leadership has emboldened far-right and authoritarian movements, with significant consequences for queer and trans individuals. One major impact is the rollback of PEPFAR, a U.S. AIDS relief program crucial for marginalized groups in the Global South. The cuts have led to widespread shutdowns of clinics in countries like Nigeria, Ghana, and South Africa, leaving many without life-saving HIV treatment. (Them)
In Libya, Abdel Ghani al-Kikli, known as Gheniwa and head of the powerful Stability Support Apparatus (SSA) in Tripoli, was killed at the headquarters of the 444th Combat Brigade. His death triggered violent clashes in the capital, resulting in at least six deaths. Kikli, influential in Tripoli’s security landscape, had been accused of serious human rights violations, including torture, extrajudicial killings, and crimes against migrants and refugees. The clashes underscored Libya’s fragile stability since its 2011 uprising, with the UN urging an immediate end to the fighting and warning of potential war crimes. (The Guardian)
