Geopolitical Briefing: Nigeria
— 1 June 2025
- President Tinubu requests parliamentary approval for $21.5 billion in external borrowing to fund economic reforms.
- Over 700 deaths linked to IPOB's sit-at-home protests in Nigeria's southeast since 2021, with significant economic losses reported.
- Boko Haram's resurgence in northeastern Nigeria challenges military efforts, with increased attacks and territorial gains.
- Forty-two civilians killed in Benue State amid escalating farmer-herder conflicts, threatening national food security.
- Reforms in Nigeria's National Petroleum Company aim to restore investor confidence and boost oil production.(Reuters, Reuters, AP News, The Guardian, Financial Times)
On 27 May 2025, President Bola Tinubu formally requested parliamentary approval for external borrowing totaling $21.5 billion, including €2.19 billion and ¥15 billion, alongside a $65 million grant. This move is part of Tinubu's broader economic reforms initiated since taking office in 2023, which included the elimination of fuel subsidies and the devaluation of the naira. These measures aimed to stimulate economic growth but resulted in heightened inflation and a severe cost-of-living crisis across Nigeria. The proposed borrowing is seen as a response to the economic impact of these reforms, aiming to fund infrastructure projects and social programs to alleviate public hardship. (Reuters)
A report released on 26 May 2025 by SBM Intelligence reveals that over 700 people have died in Nigeria's southeast region due to a sit-at-home protest initiated by the banned separatist group, the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), since 2021. The fatalities are attributed to enforcements of the protest, which include violence against civilians defying the order and clashes with security forces. The unrest has also caused significant economic disruption, with estimated losses exceeding 7.6 trillion naira ($4.79 billion). While initial compliance with the protest was high, public support has significantly waned, with many now participating out of fear. (Reuters)
Boko Haram has resurged in northeastern Nigeria, with a wave of attacks since early 2025, overwhelming military outposts, planting roadside bombs, and assaulting civilians. Despite previous military gains, the extremist group—now split into two factions, IS-backed ISWAP and JAS—continues to destabilize the region. ISWAP has executed at least 15 assaults this year, including attacks on military bases across Borno state and joint Nigeria-Cameroon operations. Its success is credited to territorial expansion, decentralized command, and support from IS in the Middle East, including advanced tactics like nighttime raids and modified drones. (AP News)
On 27 May 2025, forty-two people were killed in a series of attacks across four communities in Benue State, central Nigeria. The violence, attributed to itinerant Fulani herders, took place in the villages of Tyolaha, Tse-Ubiam, Ahume, and Aondona. Local official Victor Omnin confirmed the toll, describing scenes of ongoing corpse recovery. The attacks involved the killing of women and young children, further intensifying the severity of the tragedy. The conflict between herders and farmers in Nigeria, particularly in the middle belt region, is driven by multiple factors, including diminishing pastoral land due to climate change, overpopulation, and allegations of land-grabbing and ethnic cleansing. These tensions are often fueled by religious divides, with Fulani herders typically Muslim and indigenous farmers largely Christian. The violence has severely impacted farming in Benue, Nigeria’s “Food Basket of the Nation,” threatening national food security. (The Guardian)
In April 2025, Nigeria's President Bola Tinubu dismissed the entire 11-member board of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), signaling long-anticipated reforms. The dismissed board included Mele Kyari, who had led NNPC since 2019, during a period of declining oil production and investment. Replacing him is Bashir Ojulari, a seasoned industry executive with experience at Shell and Renaissance Africa Energy. Alongside Ojulari, the new board includes other experts with deep industry ties, including Musa Kida, formerly of Total, aiming to restore investor confidence and address longstanding issues of mismanagement and embezzlement. The reform push comes as Nigeria, Africa’s largest crude producer, faces waning foreign investment and transitions from international oil majors to domestic operators in onshore assets. Deepwater projects, like Shell’s $5bn Bonga North investment, are seen as critical. Key challenges for the new leadership include rectifying NNPC’s debt obligations, improving transparency, and advancing its stalled public listing. Given that oil exports account for 70% of Nigeria’s export revenues and fund over half of government spending, revitalizing NNPC is essential for national economic stability. (Financial Times)
