Geopolitical Briefing: North Africa
— 1 June 2025
- The United Kingdom formally endorsed Morocco’s autonomy plan for Western Sahara, aligning with U.S. and French positions.
- Libya’s eastern-based government threatened to declare force majeure on oil fields amid internal disputes with the Tripoli-based National Oil Corporation.
- Egypt, Tunisia, and Algeria jointly called for immediate de-escalation in Libya and the holding of simultaneous elections.
- A tragic car crash in Libya's desert resulted in the deaths of 11 Sudanese migrants, highlighting ongoing migration challenges.
- Tunisian authorities transferred several political detainees to remote prisons, raising concerns over political repression.(Reuters, Reuters, Middle East Monitor, AP News, Arab News)
On 1 June, the United Kingdom officially backed Morocco's autonomy plan for Western Sahara, marking a significant shift in its foreign policy. Foreign Secretary David Lammy announced the endorsement during a visit to Rabat, describing the plan as the most "credible, viable and pragmatic" solution to the long-standing territorial dispute. This move aligns the UK with other permanent members of the UN Security Council, such as the U.S. and France, who have previously supported Morocco's proposal. The endorsement is expected to bolster Morocco's position internationally but may strain relations with Algeria, a staunch supporter of the Polisario Front, which seeks independence for Western Sahara. The UK's decision also opens avenues for enhanced trade and investment opportunities, particularly in infrastructure and renewable energy sectors, ahead of the 2030 FIFA World Cup, which Morocco is set to co-host. This development reflects Morocco's strategic efforts to consolidate control over Western Sahara and strengthen its international alliances.(AP News, Reuters, Financial Times)
Libya's eastern-based government, lacking international recognition, announced on 28 May the possibility of declaring force majeure on its oil fields and ports, citing alleged repeated assaults on the National Oil Corporation (NOC). This faction, backed by military leader Khalifa Haftar, controls many of the country's oil resources and is considering relocating the NOC headquarters to cities under its control, such as Ras Lanuf and Brega. However, the NOC, headquartered in Tripoli under the internationally recognized Government of National Unity (GNU), denied any attacks occurred, describing a recent incident as a minor personal dispute with no impact on operations. This internal discord threatens Libya's oil production stability, a critical component of its economy, and underscores the ongoing power struggle between rival factions. The situation highlights the challenges Libya faces in achieving political unity and maintaining control over its vital resources.(Reuters)
On 31 May, Egypt, Tunisia, and Algeria issued a joint statement calling for an immediate end to escalation in Libya and the holding of simultaneous parliamentary and presidential elections. The call was made during a trilateral meeting in Cairo, emphasizing the need for Libyan parties to exercise maximum restraint and prioritize the safety of the Libyan people. This regional initiative reflects growing concerns over Libya's political fragmentation and the potential for renewed conflict. By advocating for a unified electoral process, these neighboring countries aim to facilitate a political solution that restores stability and governance in Libya. Such efforts also demonstrate a commitment to regional cooperation and the pursuit of collective security interests.(Middle East Monitor)
A tragic incident on 30 May highlighted the ongoing humanitarian crisis faced by migrants in Libya. Eleven Sudanese migrants and a Libyan driver died in a car crash approximately 90 kilometers north of the town of Kufra. The accident occurred early in the day when their vehicle collided with a truck. Among the deceased were three women and two children, while a 65-year-old man and his 10-year-old son sustained injuries. This event underscores the perilous conditions migrants endure while traversing Libya, a major hub for African and Middle Eastern migrants seeking to reach Europe. The country's ongoing instability and porous borders have facilitated human trafficking, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis and challenging regional security frameworks.(AP News)
On 30 May, reports emerged that several jailed Tunisian opposition figures were transferred without prior notice to prisons far from their families. At least seven political detainees were moved from Mornaguia prison near Tunis to remote facilities, a move their lawyers and relatives denounced as "repressive." This action raises concerns about the Tunisian government's commitment to political freedoms and due process. Such measures may indicate a tightening of political control and a departure from democratic norms, potentially impacting Tunisia's internal stability and its relations with international partners.(Arab News)
