Geopolitical Briefing: Lebanon
— 20 June 2025
- Israeli airstrikes hit Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon on 20 June, marking a significant escalation.
- Lebanese airspace remains open despite regional tensions, supporting MEA flight operations.
- Hezbollah remains sidelined in the Iran–Israel conflict, following indirect calls from leaders to maintain neutrality.
- The Lebanese Army threatens to cease cooperation with the U.S.-led ceasefire monitoring committee after recent Israeli strikes.
On 20 June 2025, the Israeli military conducted fresh airstrikes on southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah rocket launchers and weapons storage facilities. The strikes were justified by Israel as necessary to prevent the restoration of Hezbollah's military capabilities (securitycouncilreport.org, reuters.com, apnews.com, apnews.com). This marks a clear intensification of Israeli operations against Hezbollah, aimed at undermining its strategic posture on the border—while Lebanon's response remains constrained by the delicate balance between national sovereignty and internal political divisions.
Despite heightened regional tension, Lebanon’s Minister of Public Works and Transport, Fayez Rasamny, confirmed that Lebanese airspace will remain open unless the security environment forces temporary closures (reuters.com). This choice reflects the government's preference to preserve economic and infrastructural connectivity—even at the risk of civilian vulnerability—prioritising economic resilience and external autonomy in a fraught regional environment.
According to reporting by the Washington Post, Hezbollah has refrained from entering the Iran–Israel confrontation, despite Iran suffering strike-related losses (washingtonpost.com, en.wikipedia.org). This restraint follows public statements by President Aoun and Prime Minister Salam on 16 June, urging Lebanese neutrality in the Iran–Israel war (apnews.com). Hezbollah’s inactive posture demonstrates deference to state signals and reflects its weakened military capacity from the 2024 conflict—while still retaining capacity to condition future engagement based on threats to Iranian interests.
On 6 June 2025, the Lebanese Army publicly warned that ongoing Israeli airstrikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs—which struck alleged Hezbollah drone workshops—could force it to freeze coordination with the multinational ceasefire monitoring committee (apnews.com).
The army emphasised that repeated bypassing of its security recommendations undermines its role and risks pushing Lebanon away from international oversight, highlighting the fragility of Lebanon’s strategy to assert territorial sovereignty under external pressure.
