Geopolitical Briefing: Nigeria
— 20 June 2025
- At least 100–150 civilians killed in a large-scale massacre in Yelewata, Benue State, prompting presidential response and humanitarian deployment.
- President Tinubu orders crackdown after the Benue massacre, visiting affected areas and demanding security agency accountability.
- Widespread flooding in Mokwa, Niger State kills over 200, displacing thousands and damaging critical infrastructure.
- Nigeria’s Dangote refinery prepares to export first gasoline cargo to Asia, boosting global market integration.
- U.S. under Trump considers expanding travel bans to include Nigeria, potentially hindering regional cooperation.
Yelewata Massacre (14–16 June 2025)
Between 100 and 150 civilians were slaughtered in Yelewata community, Benue State, over the night of 14–15 June, as armed gunmen—suspected Fulani herders—raided the market area, burning homes and harvest stores (reuters.com, reuters.com, apnews.com, en.wikipedia.org, reuters.com, reuters.com, apnews.com). President Tinubu termed the violence “senseless bloodletting” and has pledged corrective action while marking his first visit to Benue since assuming office (reuters.com). The scale of the violence—with bodies charred and recovery efforts ongoing—exposes persistent communal fractures and weak security control, underlining the urgency of strengthening internal enforcement and national unity.
Presidential Security Directive and Visit (18 June 2025)
In direct response to the massacre, Tinubu summoned security chiefs to demand accountability, pressuring police forces for arrests and action (apnews.com). He visited Makurdi hospital to meet survivors, though notably refrained from visiting the direct site in Yelewata. This marks a shift toward centralized oversight of local violence and a political assertion of control over diffuse regional incidents, though critics note the response may be too late.
Mokwa Flood Disaster (28–29 May 2025)
Devastating floods struck Mokwa in Niger State, triggered by heavy rain and dam failure, leading to over 200 confirmed deaths, around 1,000 reported missing, and destruction of homes, bridges, and farmland (apnews.com, en.wikipedia.org). President Tinubu activated federal emergency responses, deploying relief and emergency services to support thousands of displaced residents (en.wikipedia.org). The disaster highlights the state's growing vulnerability to climate shocks and underscores the need for national resilience planning and infrastructure maintenance.
Dangote Refinery’s Asian Gasoline Export (Announced 18 June 2025)
Nigeria's Dangote Refinery is set to dispatch its maiden 90,000 ton gasoline cargo to Asia on 22 June, via trading intermediary Mercuria (reuters.com). This represents a strategic move to pivot from regional to global markets, solidifying Nigeria’s status as an emergent exporter and reflecting broader efforts toward economic diversification and earning hard currency, lessening dependency on Western transaction frameworks.
U.S. Travel Ban Expansion Threatens Nigeria’s Diplomatic Engagement (18 June 2025)
Nigeria’s Foreign Minister Yussuf Tuggar warned that an anticipated U.S. expansion of travel bans under former President Trump to include Nigeria could obstruct West African trade ties, especially in energy and minerals (reuters.com). Such restrictions risk weakening Abuja’s ability to engage in regional diplomacy and economic integration, complicating its strategic outreach to non-Western partners while simultaneously exposing it to Western policy contingencies.
