Geopolitical Briefing: North Africa (Excluding Egypt)
— Monday 16 June 2025
Key Developments (9–16 June)
- The United Kingdom formally endorsed Morocco’s autonomy plan for Western Sahara.
- UN called for independent inquiry into mass graves at detention centres in Libya.
- Libya’s eastern government menaced to halt oil operations amid power struggles.
- Mauritania secured a US$2 billion pledge from Arab Coordination Group at OPEC Fund forum.
- Tunisia quietly escalated migration pushbacks despite regional contention.
🇬🇧 UK Endorses Morocco’s Plan for Western Sahara (1 June)
British Foreign Secretary David Lammy, speaking in Rabat, called Morocco’s 2007 autonomy proposal for Western Sahara the “most credible, viable and pragmatic” pathway. This places the UK alongside the US, France, and Spain in backing Rabat’s position (theguardian.com, reuters.com, isdb.org, link.springer.com). Through this diplomatic alignment, Morocco aims to solidify its territorial control and external legitimacy, increasing its leverage in Western Sahara — a direct challenge to Algeria and Polisario interests. The UK’s engagement supports Morocco’s geopolitical positioning and portends deeper economic and infrastructure integration with Western Sahara. This enhances Morocco’s external alliances and control over contested territory.
UN Demands Probe into Libyan Detention Centres (4 June)
The UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights demanded a transparent investigation into the discovery of mass graves at Tripoli-area detention facilities run by the Dbeibah government’s Stability Support Apparatus (reuters.com). Citing evidence of torture and extrajudicial killings, the UN called for access for forensic teams and accountability measures. This marks the first major UN intervention since the revelations emerged, increasing pressure on Libya’s international image. The development exposes systemic abuses and could drive calls for reform — simultaneously weakening the government's claim to security control and raising questions about its internal governance.
Eastern Government Issues Force Majeure Threat on Oil (28 May)
Libya’s eastern-based administration, aligned with Khalifa Haftar, threatened to declare force majeure on oilfields and ports due to repeated alleged disruptions targeting the National Oil Corporation (reuters.com). The Tripoli-based NOC refuted these claims, calling them minor incidents. This escalation reveals deep divisions over control of Libya’s key economic asset and may disrupt oil flow if Haftar’s faction acts. It signifies intensified competition for national resources, undermining both unity and economic recovery.
Mauritania Secures $2 Billion from ACG in Vienna (16 June)
At the OPEC Fund Development Forum, the Arab Coordination Group pledged US$2 billion to Mauritius’s national development agenda (stories.prowly.com). The initiative, led by President Ghazouani, targets infrastructure, energy transition, and socio-economic resilience. This marks a substantive international endorsement and addresses the country’s strategic goals for reducing dependence on Western funding. The financing deepens Mauritania’s regional economic role and enhances autonomy through pan-Arab integration.
Tunisia Intensifies Migrant Pushbacks (Early June)
A new study indicates that Tunisia has escalated security-driven pushbacks of Black sub-Saharan migrants to its borders (isdb.org, link.springer.com). Despite criticism, the policy has accelerated migrant removals since early June. Though largely undocumented, this represents a covert yet deliberate intensification of migration control tactics. While reinforcing Tunisia’s domestic border security, the unilateral measures may risk regional friction and humanitarian reproach, limiting broader political cooperation and undermining inclusive norms.
