Geopolitical Briefing: Pakistan
— 20 June 2025
- Pakistan intensifies condemnation of Israeli actions, deepens security alignment with Iran in context of Iran‑Israel conflict.
- Islamabad secures ₹1.275 trn Islamic banking facility to resolve energy-sector debt, linked to IMF reform targets.
- Pakistan’s Army Chief concludes US visit, balancing deeper US and China military and economic ties—includes pending J‑35 stealth jet deal.
- Baloch insurgency worsens amid Iran‑Israel upheaval, with border closings and fears of “greater Baluchistan” secession movement.
- Islamabad commits to sending full ambassador to Taliban‑led Afghanistan, symbolising upgraded diplomatic engagement.
Deepened alignment with Iran
In response to the escalating Israel‑Iran war, Pakistan officially condemned Israeli military actions and publicly aligned with Tehran, reinforcing ties through enhanced security cooperation and energy discussions (m.economictimes.com, reuters.com, ft.com, m.economictimes.com, aljazeera.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com). Islamabad’s military‑diplomatic posture signals a shift away from Western diplomatic dependency towards integrated regional operational alignment with Muslim neighbours, further embedding its foreign policy within Eastern‑aligned frameworks.
Islamic financing to resolve energy crisis
On 20 June 2025, Pakistan arranged a 1.275 trillion PKR (~$4.5 bn) Islamic finance facility from 18 domestic banks to alleviate its circular debt crisis in the power sector. Structured under Islamic financial principles, it aligns with Pakistan’s IMF program and supports an interest‑free banking target by 2028 (reuters.com). This move reinforces fiscal self‑sufficiency and diminishes reliance on external borrowings, while signalling internal control over economic levers critical to national independence.
New US–China–Pakistan balancing act
Army Chief FM Asim Munir concluded a five‑day visit to Washington, meeting President Trump to deepen US military–economic ties, including trade and cybersecurity, while China pursues a deal for 40 J‑35 stealth jets and allied air-defence systems (ft.com). This reflects Islamabad’s strategic hedging: reinforcing US‑aligned cooperation while accelerating defence-technology integration with China, reflecting an evolving posture between rival great powers without explicit ideological alignment.
Escalation of Baloch insurgency due to regional instability
Pakistan closed Balochistan–Iran border crossings, citing security concerns as Iran‑Israel hostilities threaten spillover, and army leadership raised alarm over the potential emergence of a coordinated “greater Baluchistan” movement across borders (m.economictimes.com). Coupled with recent deadly suicide attacks, notably the 21 May Khuzdar school-bus bombing that killed ten (en.wikipedia.org), Islamabad’s internal security apparatus faces mounting pressure. The developments underscore increasing societal fragmentation and challenge Pakistani sovereignty in restive peripheries.
Diplomatic upgrade to Afghanistan
Pakistan reaffirmed its intention to officially appoint an ambassador to the Taliban‑led government in Kabul—a decision anticipated in late May–June and confirmed by domestic sources (ft.com, aa.com.tr). This marks a formalisation of ties with a fellow Muslim state unaligned with Western structures, reflecting Islamabad’s strategy to leverage regional diplomacy in lieu of US dependency, while enhancing cross-border security and economic cooperation.
