Geopolitical Briefing: Somalia – Strategic Trends Report
12 June 2025
Somalia’s Maritime Sovereignty Is Under Renewed Pressure from Foreign Interests
Somalia’s control over its territorial waters is being tested by both external naval deployments and opaque extractive agreements. Turkey’s deepening engagement—framed as maritime security assistance—includes exclusive access to oil exploration off the Somali coast under a February 2024 deal. While formally welcomed by Mogadishu, critics inside and outside the region interpret this as a neocolonial economic arrangement in exchange for short-term security aid. Türkiye’s provision of UAVs and naval training has, in effect, granted it outsized influence over Somali territorial waters, including the Gulf of Aden corridor. Meanwhile, the reduced presence of Western navies post-Red Sea Houthi escalation has created an unregulated environment increasingly vulnerable to both piracy and proxy naval control. These dynamics are eroding Somalia’s ability to assert sovereign rights over maritime resources while reinforcing reliance on foreign military patrons.
This trend compromises national control over maritime sovereignty and opens the strategic coastline to long-term foreign exploitation.
Ethiopian Ambitions in Somaliland Risk Triggering Open Interstate Conflict
Despite international objections, Ethiopia’s government under Abiy Ahmed continues to pursue a port access deal with Somaliland, effectively recognizing it as an independent state in exchange for naval basing rights. Somalia’s government considers this a violation of its territorial integrity and has mobilized diplomatic pressure via the Arab League and IGAD. While no military response has occurred, federal forces have repositioned units to Galmudug and northern Hirshabelle. Somaliland’s internal stability has also begun to fray under pressure, with political parties divided and some clan militias expressing reluctance to enforce the port deal militarily. Djibouti, Kenya, and the UAE have remained publicly neutral, although reports suggest they are closely monitoring troop movements.
This regional tension represents the gravest challenge to Somalia’s territorial integrity since the civil war and risks broader destabilization if left unchecked.
Somalia’s Security Strategy Is Transitioning from Foreign Dependency to Localised Force Generation
Somalia’s long dependence on AMISOM (now AUSSOM) and U.S. drone strikes is slowly giving way to a model prioritising domestic force generation. Since 2023, federal funding for the Danab Brigade and Somali National Army units has steadily increased, with new officer training pipelines established through Türkiye and Qatar. Despite recent corruption allegations, the Ministry of Defence has begun local manufacturing of basic supplies and is trialing biometric payroll systems to prevent ghost soldiers. Al-Shabaab, meanwhile, continues to exert asymmetric pressure via targeted assassinations and improvised explosive devices, particularly in Banadir and Lower Shabelle. Yet their territorial control has diminished, and recent defections suggest morale and cohesion issues.
This internal transition reflects a broader move towards sovereign military control, though success hinges on governance reform and sustained resource flow.
Islamic Civil Society Networks Are Expanding Influence in Humanitarian and Education Sectors
While secular NGOs continue to dominate donor coordination platforms, Islamic networks—including Al-Islah-linked charities and Gulf-funded education initiatives—have expanded into urban humanitarian relief, madrasa reform, and women’s vocational training. Their appeal lies in efficiency, cultural coherence, and distrust of Western-affiliated NGOs. The Ministry of Religious Affairs has increased licensing for Qur’anic education institutions, and local ulama councils in Hirshabelle and Jubaland are now consulted on social policy. While the government has not formally adopted Islamic legal standards, recent bylaws in Baidoa and Kismayo on public dress codes and dispute mediation reflect a drift toward socially conservative governance models.
These developments reflect a shift in societal governance away from secular liberal norms and toward Islamic frameworks rooted in indigenous legitimacy.
Diaspora Capital Is Reshaping Somalia’s Economic Geography—But Risking Inequality
Remittances remain the backbone of Somalia’s economy—$2 billion annually—and are increasingly being channelled into urban real estate, fintech, and healthcare. Diaspora-led investment groups are driving construction booms in Mogadishu, Garowe, and Hargeisa, while ignoring rural infrastructure and agricultural sectors. Somalia’s Central Bank has made efforts to regulate digital transactions and microfinance initiatives, but the absence of a nationwide banking law leaves these investments vulnerable to elite capture. Reports of displacement due to land speculation and disputes over urban zoning have risen, particularly in Mogadishu and Bosaso. Without redistribution mechanisms or zoning controls, the country risks replicating patterns of regional inequality and clan-based capital concentration.
This economic reordering empowers urban elites but may exacerbate internal fragmentation unless accompanied by decentralised development strategies.
