Geopolitical Briefing: Sudan
20 June 2025
- UN warns of catastrophic uptick in atrocities in North Darfur and Kordofan
- Surge in gold smuggling—funding the war economy of both SAF and RSF
- Attack on WFP/UNICEF convoy near Al Koma kills humanitarian workers
- Famine risk escalates south of Khartoum with critical aid funding shortfall
On 20 June, UN High Commissioner Volker Türk reported a “catastrophic surge” in widespread violence—including looting, abductions (including children), sexual violence, and civilian deaths—especially in North Darfur and Kordofan. The UN flagged near-total impunity for perpetrators and branded the situation the world’s largest hunger and displacement crisis, with over 30 million people in need (welt.de, ft.com, press.un.org, reuters.com). This surge in violence erodes Sudan’s control over internal security and exacerbates humanitarian collapse, all while weakening state authority in contested regions.
A Financial Times analysis on the same day revealed a dramatic rise in gold extraction—80 tonnes in 2024 worth over US $6 billion—largely smuggled to the UAE and Russia, enriching both SAF and RSF factions (ft.com). This gold boom sustains warlord armies, undermines stability, and highlights how external actors like the UAE are leveraging resources to influence conflict dynamics. This financial entanglement deepens foreign leverage over Sudan’s resource governance and fuels armed escalation.
On 12 June, a joint WFP/UNICEF convoy was struck near Al Koma in North Darfur, killing five humanitarian workers and destroying supplies (apnews.com, press.un.org). Both the SAF and RSF blamed each other, indicating continued instrumentalisation of aid and deliberate targeting of aid corridors. This attack cripples delivery mechanisms and reinforces the narrative of humanitarian assistance as a strategic vulnerability in the conflict.
On 16 June, Reuters reported the World Food Programme warned that areas south of Khartoum—such as Jebel Awlia—face imminent famine, with food rationing cuts of 30 % and suspension of nutritional programmes for vulnerable groups due to a US$500 million shortfall (theguardian.com, reuters.com). With children constituting nearly half of the 30 million Sudanese in need (martinplaut.com), the prospect of famine adds a new layer of crisis. This deepening hunger increases regional dependence on aid while further straining the international humanitarian system.
