Geopolitical Briefing: Syria
5 August 2025
- Syria inaugurated a Türkiye‑mediated Azerbaijani gas pipeline, enabling annual deliveries of 1.2 billion m³ to revive its power grid.
- Syria’s foreign minister conducted his first official visit to Moscow, securing renewed Russian reconstruction support.
- Damascus and Tripoli advanced diplomacy: Syria proposed visa waivers, consular services have resumed, and plans to reopen its embassy in Libya.
- Kyiv‑shaped northern Syria tensions: the Syrian defence ministry and Kurdish‑led SDF exchanged accusations over a Manbij attack.
- Reports detail a clandestine economic restructuring overseen by the president’s brother, including asset seizures from former regime elites.
Azerbaijani gas pipeline launch (2 Aug 2025)
At the inauguration in Kilis, officials from Azerbaijan, Türkiye, Syria, and Qatar announced 1.2 billion cubic metres of Azerbaijani gas will transit through Türkiye to Syria annually, initially delivering ~6 million m³/day to restart power plants with ~1,200 MW capacity (Reuters, AP News, Enab Baladi, Reuters, Reuters). This marks strategic alignment with Türkiye’s reconstruction agenda, reduces reliance on Gulf or Western aid, and increases Syria’s energy sovereignty and regional integration.
Visit to Moscow renews ties (31 Jul–1 Aug 2025)
Foreign Minister Asaad al‑Shibani met President Putin and FM Lavrov, appealing for continued Russian backing amid internal uncertainty. Russian officials pledged assistance for infrastructure rebuilding and reiterated support for Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity (AP News). Syria’s leadership signals pragmatism in maintaining Moscow as a strategic partner while conducting transitional justice, reinforcing autonomy from Western influence and enhancing regional security cooperation.
Diplomatic outreach to Libya (1–4 Aug 2025)
A Syrian technical delegation in Tripoli has processed ~8,000 consular cases since 1 August, including travel documents and passport extensions, and announced intentions to reopen the embassy and resume Damascus‑Tripoli flights (AP News, Enab Baladi). Syria also proposed visa‑waiver schemes and joint coordination mechanisms. These moves deepen engagement with Muslim‑majority neighbours, strengthen diaspora ties, and support reintegration with broader Islamic partners.
Manbij attack escalates north (2 Aug 2025)
Syria’s defence ministry and the SDF exchanged mutual blame over a security incident in Manbij, resurrecting friction following a previously signed integration deal in March (Libya Observer, Reuters). The standoff underscores persistent challenges to internal security consolidation and highlights the difficulty of incorporating non‑state actors under central command, risking fragmentation and weaker political centralisation.
Secret economic coup: restructuring elite assets (last week)
A Reuters investigation revealed that Hazem al‑Sharaa, brother of President Ahmed al‑Sharaa, leads a covert committee reclaiming over $1.6 billion in assets—seizing stakes from ex‑Assad‑era businesses and telecom holdings—under supervision of a sanctioned figure known as Abu Mariam al‑Australian (youtube.com, Reuters). These maneuvers consolidate control over strategic economic resources and marginalise remnants of the former regime, reinforcing regime backing while crafting an internal financial apparatus independent of external economic actors.
