Geopolitical Briefing: Somalia
14 August 2025
• Four Key Foreign Policy and Geopolitical Developments (Past 7 Days)
- AUSSOM captured Bariire, a strategic town in Lower Shabelle, signalling renewed gains against al-Shabaab.
- Somalia–Türkiye deepened defense ties with a July amendment boosting military support and equipment deliveries.
- Somalia’s Foreign Minister met Qatar’s State Minister of Foreign Affairs in late July to enhance bilateral cooperation.
- The outlook for Somaliland’s recognition shifted, as the U.S. reportedly reconsiders its stance following talks involving U.S. defense figures.
AUSSOM and Somali Forces Recapture Bariire (8 August 2025)
The African Union-backed support mission (AUSSOM), alongside the Somali National Army, successfully recaptured the strategically important town of Bariire in Lower Shabelle after a week-long offensive, neutralising over 120 al-Shabaab militants, capturing fighters, and seizing weapons caches (Wikipedia, Wikipedia, web.mfa.gov.so, The Guardian). This operation marks a significant territorial and symbolic victory, enhancing Somalia’s authority over contested regions and reinforcing national-led security efforts.
It strengthens Somalia’s sovereign control through indigenous and AU-supported force generation, while reinforcing internal political cohesion.
Expanded Military Cooperation with Türkiye
In July 2025, Somalia and Türkiye amended their existing defense assistance agreement, providing fresh financial aid, training, and advanced military hardware—including attack helicopters and Akıncı drones delivered earlier in 2025 (Wikipedia). Türkiye remains a key provider strengthening Somali military infrastructure, especially for air and naval capabilities.
This deepened cooperation enhances sovereignty over national defense and diversifies external partnerships, reducing over-reliance on a single foreign partner.
High-Level Diplomatic Engagement with Qatar (28 July 2025)
Somalia’s Foreign Minister met with Qatar’s State Minister for Foreign Affairs during the OIC Contact Group on Somalia in Doha, reinforcing diplomatic ties and promising renewed cooperation (mofa.gov.qa). While focused on institutional diplomacy, the engagement underscores Somalia's pursuit of broader regional support within Muslim-majority diplomatic networks.
Such diversification enhances political autonomy through strengthened ties with influential Gulf partners.
U.S. Reassessment of Somaliland Recognition Post-Dialogue
According to The Guardian, Somaliland's President announced that international recognition might be imminent following recent discussions with U.S. defense officials and former President Trump. The U.S. may be reevaluating its one‑Somalia policy in light of strategic considerations, including access to the Horn of Africa and countering Chinese influence (The Guardian).
This potential shift poses a direct challenge to Somalia's sovereignty and continental coherence, requiring careful diplomatic counterbalance to preserve internal territorial integrity.
