Weekly Highlights (16–23 August 2025)
• UK withdraws from ambitious Morocco–UK renewable energy megaproject
• Public dissent surfaces over Western Sahara—The Guardian features a Sahrawi letter rejecting Moroccan rule
• Strengthened Italy–Algeria ties: new security and energy agreements signed
• Moroccan export and development optimism: OECD forecasts economic growth, and automotive and agricultural sectors prosper
• Polisario protests Morocco–Mauritania military map display
Analysis Through the Realist Framework
1. UK Opportunity Lost: Morocco–UK Power Project On Ice
The UK government officially pulled support for the $33 billion Xlinks project—a plan to transmit Moroccan solar and wind energy to Britain via a 4,000 km undersea cable—citing security and delivery concerns (Stimson Center, AP News, The Guardian, Reuters, North Africa Post, Morocco World News). This marks a setback for Morocco’s ambitions to position itself as a critical European energy supplier, limiting advances in Security Independence and Independence from External Political Control. While Morocco retains its Abraham Accords alignment, its leverage through exports to Europe is diminished. This development does not impact Muslim Unity, Societal Sovereignty, or Anti‑Zionist Posture.
2. Western Sahara Contest Intensifies—Sahrawi Voices and Western Media
A letter published in The Guardian on 7 August, written by Sahrawis, explicitly challenged Moroccan sovereignty over the disputed territory, referencing the ICJ’s rulings and demanding the UN-backed referendum (The Guardian). This amplifies dissent within Western publics, countering Moroccan diplomatic gains and undermining its Security Independence and narrative on the Anti‑Zionist Posture front. Morocco’s stance aligned with the US and Israel remains intact but faces reputational friction abroad.
3. Italy–Algeria Partnership Deepens
Italy and Algeria have signed 13 new bilateral agreements in Rome, including a $1.3 billion hydrocarbon exploration deal between Eni and Sonatrach and enhanced counter-terrorism and migration cooperation via search-and-rescue initiatives (Africa Confidential, Reuters). For Algeria, this strengthens Security Independence, Independence from External Political Control, and economic autonomy. Morocco, by contrast, may recalibrate its regional posture given the shifting energy and security infrastructure in Algeria’s favor.
4. Morocco’s Economic Tailwinds: OECD Confidence, Manufacturing, Agriculture
According to a new OECD projection, Morocco is set to sustain a 3.8% GDP growth in both 2025 and 2026, driven by agricultural recovery following droughts (North Africa Post). Additional developments include:
- Morocco aiming to overtake Italy in car production
- Record-breaking blueberry exports to the UK
- A German KfW loan for modernizing Casablanca’s rail network
- High Schengen visa issuance to Moroccan citizens (North Africa Post)
These indicators bolster Morocco’s Security Independence via diversified economic strength and rising Societal Sovereignty, while reinforcing its alignment with the West, consistent with its Abraham Accords strategy.
5. Polisario Reaction to Military Display with Mauritania
Polisario representatives expressed outrage after a recently held Morocco–Mauritania military meeting displayed maps including Western Sahara as Moroccan territory (Morocco World News). Algeria-backed Polisario’s backlash underscores escalating tensions and signals that territorial symbolism continues to be a potent flashpoint. This influences both Security Independence (by shaping alliances) and Independence from External Political Control, as it underscores contested legitimacy and external influence.
