Somalia — Geopolitical Briefing (24 Aug 2025)

Top 5 developments (past 7 days)

• Govt warns opposition of crackdown in Mogadishu as Defence Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi threatens to use force against any “armed rebellion,” amid growing tension over electoral reforms. (Garowe Online)
  
• PM Hamza Abdi Barre departs for China to attend the 7th China–Arab States Expo in Ningxia, signalling deepening economic outreach to Beijing. (Shabelle Media)
  
• Auditor General flags missing funds and judicial non‑cooperation: 2024 audit reports >$1m unaccounted while top courts block scrutiny of ~$2m; fuels governance concerns. (Garowe Online, Radio Dalsan, X (formerly Twitter))
  
• President Hassan Sheikh backs a shift to a two‑party system, arguing party‑based politics would reduce personality and clan fragmentation; opposition states reject roadmap. (Garowe Online)
  
• Roadside bomb near Mogadishu kills two elders at Jabad Geelle, underscoring persistent insecurity around the capital. (Garowe Online)
  

1) Government threatens opposition with force in Mogadishu

Defence Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi warned that any attempt to take up arms in the capital “will be met with resistance,” as talks with key opposition figures collapsed over election and constitutional changes. The article notes Jubaland and Puntland siding with the opposition against the federal roadmap. The risk is a securitised response to a political dispute, which could fracture elite bargains that underpin stability in Mogadishu and stress federal–member state relations. (Garowe Online)

2) PM Hamza heads to China for the 7th China–Arab States Expo

The Prime Minister’s trip to Yinchuan positions Somalia to court trade, infrastructure and investment ties with China at a time of intense competition for influence in the Red Sea–Horn corridor. Beyond deals, such visits typically open lanes for concessional finance, digital and port connectivity, and fisheries/value‑chain support—areas Somalia has prioritised in recent policy. Tracking deliverables (MoUs, lines of credit, sector pilots) from this forum will indicate whether outreach converts into concrete projects that can buttress growth and external diversification. (Shabelle Media)

3) Audit shock: missing funds and courts blocking oversight

Auditor General Ahmed Issa Guutaale’s annual review reported over $1 million missing from the federal treasury. More strikingly, the Supreme Court and Benadir courts refused cooperation on roughly $2 million in allocations—an institutional standoff that erodes fiscal credibility and investor confidence. Multiple local outlets amplified the briefings. Expect parliamentary pressure and donor scrutiny; without swift remedial steps (forensic probes, compliance guarantees), budget support and new credit discussions could face headwinds. (Garowe Online, Radio Dalsan, X (formerly Twitter))

4) President pitches a two‑party political system

In Dhusamareb, President Hassan Sheikh argued for moving away from personality‑centric politics toward party competition to advance direct elections and constitutional finalisation. Federal member states and opposition blocs remain sceptical, fearing centralisation and timeline slippage. The proposal could streamline governance if built on consensus and clear timelines; absent that, it risks deepening the centre–periphery rift and complicating election security planning. (Garowe Online)

5) Roadside IED south of Mogadishu

The bombing that killed two elders near Elasha Biyaha highlights the security gap in peri‑urban belts where land disputes, criminal networks and militant cells intersect. Even as national forces conduct operations elsewhere, sustained urban‑rim security (patrol patterns, community informant networks, route clearance) remains pivotal to protect political processes in the capital and reassure business activity. (Garowe Online)