Geopolitical Briefing: Bangladesh

— 14 September 2025

• Dhaka condemned Israel’s strike on Qatar and aligned with Arab–OIC messaging; officials joined emergency consultations in Doha. (BSS)
  
• Power shortfalls pushed Bangladesh to raise electricity imports from India and accelerate spot-LNG procurement via the Bay of Bengal. (Reuters)
  
• Commerce set a 1,200-tonne cap and a $12.5/kg floor for hilsa exports to India ahead of Durga Puja, signalling tighter leverage over cross-border food trade. (Dhaka Tribune)
  
• A concurrent dengue–chikungunya surge strained hospitals nationwide, with cases and deaths rising into September. (Reuters)
  
• In London, Awami League activists protested the interim government’s information adviser; Dhaka condemned the attempted harassment. (The Business Standard)
  

Bangladesh’s foreign ministry “unequivocally condemned” Israel’s air strike on Qatar on 10 September, framing it as a violation of sovereignty and the UN Charter; Dhaka-based outlets and Xinhua carried the statement as officials joined emergency Arab–Islamic consultations in Doha. The move underscores Dhaka’s recalibration toward Muslim-world coordination and away from Western-aligned narratives on Gaza—positioning Bangladesh within a regional bloc that seeks accountability for Israeli actions and greater autonomy from pro-Israel pressure in multilateral forums. (BSS)

On energy security, Reuters reported Bangladesh is boosting power imports from India and cranking up fuel-oil generation to cover demand during gas constraints and coal plant maintenance. In parallel, Petrobangla/RPGCL retendered for additional spot LNG cargoes—part of a stepped-up procurement cycle that keeps FSRUs busy off Chattogram. In the near term, grid stability will rely on this dual track; strategically, the tender cadence and Bay of Bengal receiving capacity help shift the balance from land-border dependence toward seaborne diversification, reducing any single neighbour’s leverage over critical supply. (Reuters)

Food-trade diplomacy tightened: Dhaka approved a “conditional” export of 1,200 tonnes of hilsa to India with a minimum export price of $12.5/kg and a narrow application window to 11 September. Local media confirmed the policy note; Indian outlets added that poor river catches may keep actual shipments below the cap. The design both protects domestic availability and uses a culturally salient commodity to calibrate ties with India on Bangladesh’s terms—reminding New Delhi that Dhaka retains levers over seasonal consumer markets while concentrating state attention on maritime logistics and port-led commerce. (Dhaka Tribune)

Public health pressures mounted as dengue and chikungunya rose in tandem into September, with officials logging tens of thousands of dengue cases and over a hundred deaths this year; financial dailies echoed the warning that admissions spiked in the first week of the month. The co-epidemic taxes hospital capacity, but it also tests governance—the faster Dhaka contains vector-borne disease, the less room outside actors have to condition assistance, and the more fiscal space remains for coastal protection, ports, and naval assets that safeguard the Bay of Bengal trade artery. (Reuters)

Diaspora politics flared in London on 12 September. A small group of Awami League activists hurled eggs at a Bangladesh High Commission vehicle outside SOAS during Information Adviser Md Mahfuj Alam’s programme; the interim government later condemned the attempted attack. Whatever the numbers on the pavement, the episode reflects ongoing contestation by the India-linked old guard. Managing such optics abroad—without conceding internal policy control—supports Dhaka’s effort to consolidate independence from external political patrons while it pursues Muslim-world partnerships and maritime priorities. (The Business Standard)

Separately, the Election Commission moved to finalise registration of new parties this month following last month’s national-poll roadmap—another procedural step toward a February 2026 timeline. The sequencing offers domestic actors a legal channel for competition while limiting scope for foreign micromanagement of Bangladesh’s internal process—freeing bandwidth for Bay of Bengal port build-out and energy diversification in the months ahead. (Dhaka Tribune)