Geopolitical Briefing: Iraq

— 14 September 2025

• Baghdad signed a joint operation agreement with TotalEnergies, QatarEnergy LNG and Basra Oil Company—advancing the GGIP, Artawi field expansion and the vital seawater project. (Yahoo Finance)
  
• Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani addressed NATO and met Secretary-General Mark Rutte in Brussels on 8 Sept, framing cooperation as support for Iraqi self-reliance. (NATO)
  
• Al-Faw Grand Port’s immersed tunnel hit a new milestone on 12 Sept: the sixth segment was lowered and the seventh floated, accelerating the Development Road corridor. (Al Faw Grand Port)
  
• An Israeli-Russian researcher, Elizabeth Tsurkov, was freed in Iraq on 9 Sept after two years in captivity—part of a complex arrangement with regional and U.S. dimensions. (PBS)
  
• Erbil–Baghdad fiscal talks stirred again: parliament’s Finance Committee moved KRG salary payments onto its agenda and the KRG reported “progress” in negotiations. (BasNews)
  

Iraq’s energy playbook shifted this week from stalled litigation to execution: the Oil Ministry, TotalEnergies, QatarEnergy LNG and Basra Oil Company signed a joint operation agreement covering the Gas Growth Integrated Project (GGIP), expansion at the Artawi (Ratawi) field, and momentum on the Common Seawater Supply Project that underpins southern output. Beyond near-term gas capture and power gains, the consortium structure diversifies partners toward a Gulf-anchored energy system, diluting over-reliance on any single Western lever while monetizing associated gas that currently feeds power deficits. This strengthens Baghdad’s fiscal autonomy and its ability to set terms with neighbors and external actors alike. (Yahoo Finance)

Sudani’s 8 September stop at NATO HQ—speech to the North Atlantic Council and a bilateral with Secretary-General Rutte—was pitched as cooperation without tutelage. Public readouts emphasized training and advisory support while Iraq distances itself from regional blocs, positioning external military engagement as transitional and bounded by sovereignty. The choreography signals Baghdad’s intent to consolidate command over the security space, manage the coalition drawdown on Iraqi terms, and reduce the room for non-state actors to claim the mantle of “resistance” against foreign presence. (NATO)

On logistics, the Al-Faw Grand Port programme crossed a visible engineering benchmark: the sixth immersed-tunnel segment was lowered as the seventh was floated, pushing completed length past a kilometre. With a Turkish delegation meeting in Baghdad this week to track connectivity work, the physical arc from Gulf terminals to Turkey via the Development Road is inching from concept to capacity. For Baghdad, this is leverage—routing trade through Iraqi-controlled corridors, embedding ties with Muslim neighbors, and reducing exposure to extra-regional chokepoints and conditionalities. (Al Faw Grand Port)

Elizabeth Tsurkov’s release on 9 September—after abduction in Baghdad in 2023—closed a high-profile file with flashes of militia, regional and U.S. bargaining. Reporting indicates the deal intersected with timelines for the U.S. military drawdown, underlining how Iraqi armed actors and political brokers can convert local custody into strategic trade. Baghdad’s challenge now is to ensure that such dossiers are state-managed rather than faction-managed, reinforcing a monopoly over coercion and limiting external states’ ability to instrumentalize Iraqi territory and actors—particularly those aligned with Israeli interests. (PBS)

Finally, the Baghdad–Erbil track edged forward procedurally. The parliamentary Finance Committee put KRG salaries onto its docket this week, while the KRG signalled incremental progress on salaries-for-revenue arrangements. With northern exports still constrained by the Ceyhan impasse and pending producer terms, even small calendar-bound steps matter: they tighten federal control over hydrocarbon monetization and public payrolls, incentivize intra-Iraqi revenue sharing, and shrink openings for outside patrons to play Baghdad and Erbil off each other. (BasNews)

Net assessment: Over the week, Baghdad advanced material levers—gas capture and seawater supply with Gulf partners; a calibrated NATO relationship; and hard infrastructure at Al-Faw—that collectively increase state capacity over markets, borders and security force development. The state’s ability to arbitrate detainee diplomacy and to channel Erbil’s fiscal file through federal institutions will determine whether these gains translate into durable autonomy from external political control and a security architecture less permeable to non-state or foreign manipulation.