Geopolitical Analysis – Somalia
Summary (12–19 Sept 2025)
- U.S. AFRICOM conducts airstrikes targeting ISIS-Somalia in Puntland (10 Sept) in coordination with the Somali government. (Africom)
- Somalia and U.S. sign new security agreement to intensify cooperation against militants (4 Sept). (Radio Dalsan)
- President Mohamud participates in Ethiopia’s GERD opening, meets PM Abiy Ahmed to discuss regional development & security cooperation. (moi.gov.so)
- Severe health & humanitarian crisis worsened by U.S. aid cuts: Somalia facing sharp declines in vaccine programmes, malnutrition rising among children, clinics shutting, water-sanitation under strain. (El País)
Analysis
1) U.S. AFRICOM airstrikes against ISIS-Somalia in Puntland
The strike of 10 September in Puntland demonstrates the FGS (Federal Govt of Somalia) continuing to rely on external force multipliers for pressure on geographically remote militant enclaves. It is strategically significant as Puntland’s rugged Golis Mountains have become a growing ISIS-Somalia stronghold. The coordination shows that Mogadishu still lacks full capability to project force in these areas alone, though the partnership improves efficacy in addressing cross-border safe havens. Risk: civilian harm, local backlash if airstrikes are poorly discriminated may feed recruitment for militants.
2) New Somalia–US security agreement
This formal deepening of cooperation likely involves intelligence sharing, training, logistical support. For Somalia, it amplifies external dependence but also upgrades capacity. It may give Mogadishu more bargaining power in its regional and major-power relationships (Gulf, China) by showing it still has key alliances. The challenge will be ensuring the agreement respects sovereignty and avoids becoming a vector for foreign political influence.
3) Participation in the GERD opening & meeting with Ethiopia
President Mohamud’s presence at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam inauguration and talks with PM Abiy reflect a tactical alignment with Ethiopia, an important neighbour for Somali security (especially in the Ogaden, Garowe, border regions) and trade routes. This can help stabilise cross-border tensions, strengthen regional blocs (IGAD, East Africa), and open infrastructure cooperation. On the flip side, balancing Ethiopia’s role—especially given its own foreign policy tensions (with Egypt, Sudan etc.)—will require diplomatic finesse.
4) Humanitarian crisis exacerbated by U.S. aid cuts
The health system is buckling: vaccine and immunisation programmes cut, rising malnutrition, disease outbreaks. This undermines state legitimacy, especially among vulnerable populations, and creates openings for non-state actors (including al-Shabaab) to gain influence via relief, basic services. The international donor retreat (especially from the U.S.) reduces external leverage but also increases the pressure on domestic governance & resource allocation. Long term, unchecked health collapse could affect national security, stability in recovered districts, and growth of radicalism.