Geopolitical Briefing: Jordan – 21 September 2025

• Allenby crossing attack disrupts Jordan’s Gaza corridor; Amman condemns and opens probe. Two Israeli soldiers were killed on 18 Sep by a Jordanian aid-truck driver at the Allenby/King Hussein Bridge; Israel shut the terminal and urged halting Jordan-origin aid to Gaza. Crossing remains closed to most traffic today, with reopening steps coordinated with Jordan. (AP News)
• EU disburses first €250m under MFA-IV (17 Sep), easing near-term financing stress. The tranche is half of a €500m package agreed in April; remaining €150m/€100m to follow subject to reforms. (Middle East, North Africa and the Gulf)
• Jordan–US naval drill “Infinite Defender 2025” concludes (18 Sep), reinforcing maritime domain awareness, C2, and joint response procedures. (بترا -وكالة الأنباء الأردنية)
• Regional annexation rhetoric elevates Jordan’s threat calculus. Israeli debates on West Bank annexation intensify this week, heightening Amman’s focus on force readiness and cross-border stability. (Financial Times)

Allenby crossing attack / aid corridor risk. The 18 Sep attack—claimed to be carried out by a Jordanian civilian driver delivering aid to Gaza—immediately shuttered the Allenby/King Hussein Bridge and prompted Israeli calls to stop Jordan-origin humanitarian shipments pending tighter screening. Amman condemned the attack as unlawful and opened an investigation, framing it as a blow to Jordan’s humanitarian mission. Continued closure (with limited, coordinated steps toward reopening) threatens a core instrument of Jordan’s anti-Zionist posture—its high-visibility aid lifeline to Gaza—while testing security independence at the border and the regime’s ability to channel intense pro-Palestine sentiment into state-controlled avenues. The episode underscores the narrowing maneuver space for a US-aided monarchy managing a combustible street. (AP News)

EU cash buffer arrives. Brussels’ €250m disbursement under MFA-IV materially eases near-term balance-of-payments pressure as Jordan absorbs shock from the crossing closure and wider regional volatility. Conditionality on governance and PFM offers macro credibility but deepens Europe’s policy leverage over Amman. In Realist terms, this is a trade-off: fiscal oxygen that sustains regime capacity and social calm, at the cost of greater dependence on external political control. For a leadership anticipating prolonged turbulence with Israel, the EU line of support also diversifies patrons beyond Washington, marginally broadening autonomy. (Middle East, North Africa and the Gulf)

Maritime interoperability with the US. The wrap-up of “Infinite Defender 2025” adds practical depth to Jordan’s coastal and maritime security toolkit—ISR, command-and-control, and multi-agency response—relevant to Red Sea spillovers and potential unmanned threats. While it signals ongoing reliance on US enablers, the exercise strengthens Jordan’s own force proficiency, advancing security independence even as the kingdom balances domestic anti-US sentiment. (بترا -وكالة الأنباء الأردنية)

Annexation talk hardens Jordan’s stance. Renewed Israeli debate over formal West Bank annexation this week amplifies the monarchy’s existential narrative—any shift east of the river would directly imperil Jordan. The discourse justifies accelerated readiness measures (e.g., the draft law now before parliament) and tighter coordination with Arab partners, reinforcing Muslim unity optics and anti-Zionist posture while preparing the public for prolonged tension. (Financial Times)