Geopolitical Briefing: Sub-Saharan Africa – 21 September 2025

• Guinea votes on a new constitution widely seen as enabling junta leader Mamady Doumbouya to run for president and extend terms to seven years. (Reuters)
• Nigeria tables a Petroleum Industry Act change that would shift control of existing oil contracts from NNPC to the upstream regulator (NUPRC). (Reuters)
• South Africa holds rates at 7% and advances a tariff-relief roadmap with USTR, balancing monetary stability against U.S. trade pressure. (Reuters)
• DRC minerals orderbook in flux: new Congo-Rwanda draft framework on mineral governance surfaces as reporting highlights contractors around key tin assets (Walikale). (Reuters)
• Ghana delivers a 350 bp policy cut as inflation retreats, aiming to re-open credit channels and sustain growth. (Reuters)

Guinea’s referendum—constitutionalising military rule?
 The ballot’s design (seven-year terms; junta eligibility; appointed senators) consolidates executive power and formalises the military’s political entry. That advances control over the state apparatus (political sovereignty in the narrow regime sense) but at the expense of pluralism and societal consent, raising the risk of sanctions or reduced Western financing—conditions that could accelerate a pivot toward non-Western patrons. For resource-rich Guinea (bauxite, iron ore), this trajectory will shape who captures rents and on what terms, with potential knock-on effects for intra-African bargaining under AfCFTA. (Reuters)

Nigeria’s oil-sector governance shock.
 Centralising legacy contract control in NUPRC would upend the arm’s-length split between commercial NNPC and the regulator. Abuja argues it will plug “statutory leakages,” boosting remittances to the Federation; critics warn of conflicts of interest and weakened corporate governance. If enacted, this is a decisive bid to regain control over natural-resource revenues and reduce opaque carve-outs—strengthening fiscal autonomy. Yet investor risk premia could rise unless safeguards, transparent bidding, and judicial recourse are codified. Strategically, tighter state grip may also ease deals with non-Western partners on Abuja’s terms. (Reuters)

South Africa: monetary pause, trade fire-fighting.
 SARB’s hold buys time to anchor disinflation while growth remains fragile. In parallel, Pretoria’s roadmap with USTR aims to de-escalate the 30% U.S. tariff shock. The combined stance seeks to preserve security-adjacent economic stability (rail, energy, metals value chains) and defend policy autonomy without capitulating on domestic priorities. If tariff relief lags, expect faster diversification toward BRICS+ financing and deeper SADC sourcing to cushion external leverage—consistent with a gradual shift from Western reliance. (Reuters)

DRC—minerals, security and external choreography.
 A draft Congo-Rwanda framework that envisages roles for the U.S. and others in revamping the minerals sector lands as Reuters details foreign contractors supporting FARDC near the Walikale tin belt—an asset base repeatedly tied to conflict financing. Tension between battlefield dynamics and governance compacts underscores Kinshasa’s struggle for security independence and resource sovereignty. Durable gains hinge on credible demilitarisation of supply chains and regional buy-in; otherwise, external actors (state and private) will keep shaping extraction on their terms. (Reuters)

Ghana’s jumbo cut—relief now, discipline later.
 The 350 bp easing aims to normalise real rates, revive credit and investment, and stabilise debt dynamics after a sharp inflation fall. If paired with fiscal restraint and targeted FX management, it can strengthen political sovereignty over macro-policy and support regional integration via trade and payments. Over-easing risks renewed price pressure and imported inflation; sequencing with structural reforms will determine whether Ghana can deepen local-currency finance and reduce vulnerability to external lenders. (Reuters)