Geopolitical Briefing: Palestine – 27 September 2025

• Aid squeeze worsens famine in northern Gaza after Israel closed the Zikim corridor; UN agencies report sharp drops in deliveries and rising child malnutrition. (Reuters)
  
• Gaza City’s health system nears collapse as hospitals are surrounded and short of power, oxygen and supplies amid intensified operations. (AP News)
  
• Recognition momentum and pushback: the UK, Canada and Australia formally recognise Palestine; Israel condemns the move at the UN, while New Zealand declines recognition. (GOV.UK)
  
• Regional pressure at UNGA: UAE foreign minister urges Netanyahu to end the Gaza war in a New York meeting, signalling strain in Abraham Accords ties. (Reuters)
  
• West Bank: OCHA’s latest update details continuing demolitions, settler violence and displacement during September, indicating sustained coercive pressures. (OCHA)
  

Israel’s 12 September closure of the Zikim/Erez-West aid route continues to degrade food access north of Wadi Gaza. Reuters reports WFP lost roughly half its northern delivery capacity; daily free meals fell from ~155,000 in late August to ~59,000 by 22 September, with convoy denials rising and clinics shutting. UNICEF/aid officials warn of escalating child malnutrition. The closure compounds insecurity for kitchens, water distribution and health posts and further isolates communities most exposed to urban fighting. (Reuters)

Inside Gaza City, medical services are breaking under siege conditions. An American nurse’s documentation and humanitarian groups describe hospitals (including al-Quds) surrounded by Israeli forces, with strikes nearby and severe shortages of electricity, oxygen and supplies. With staff evacuations, blocked patient movement and dwindling stocks, critical care is being rationed or halted entirely, heightening mortality risks for trauma, neonatal and dialysis cases as operations intensify. (AP News)

Diplomatically, recognition advanced in core Western capitals. London, Ottawa and Canberra formally recognised a Palestinian state on 21–22 September; Israel denounced the decisions at the UN the same week. The moves expand the bloc of recognisers beyond 150 states and signal a policy break with Washington’s reluctance. Yet the week also showed limits: Wellington stated on 27 September it would not recognise “at this time,” underscoring divergent approaches among traditional allies. The net effect is intensified international polarisation around statehood while fighting continues. (GOV.UK)

At UNGA, regional actors increased direct pressure. UAE foreign minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed urged Prime Minister Netanyahu in person to end the war, according to state media cited by Reuters. Coming after Abu Dhabi’s criticism of earlier escalatory actions, the meeting highlights strains within normalised ties and signals that continued operations carry diplomatic costs even among states that maintain relations with Israel. (Reuters)

Beyond Gaza, coercive dynamics persist in the West Bank. OCHA’s latest situation update (published this week) documents ongoing demolitions, settler violence and displacement, including patterns observed since early September. The continued attrition of housing and infrastructure, combined with movement restrictions, sustains instability and risks further depopulation of targeted communities. (OCHA)