Geopolitical Briefing: Iraq

— 12 October 2025

• Baghdad and Ankara announced a draft Tigris–Euphrates water-sharing framework, slated for signature in Iraq “soon.” (AP News)
  
• Amnesty implementation accelerated: the judiciary said more than 35,000 detainees have been released under this year’s law, with further eligibility waves pending. (AP News)
  
• Kurdistan Region crude exports continued to flow to Ceyhan under the new federal framework, with Erbil reporting multi-million-barrel liftings this week. (Kurdistan24 – کوردستان 24)
  
• Election integrity jitters: IHEC disqualified and then reinstated candidates within days, drawing domestic criticism of political interference. (The New Arab)
  

The most consequential file this week is water. Turkish and Iraqi foreign ministers unveiled a draft management and sharing framework for the Tigris–Euphrates basin, with Baghdad inviting Ankara to sign in the capital “in the near future.” The announcement coincided with Turkey lifting its flight ban on Sulaymaniyah—symbolically easing frictions as both sides link water governance to broader economic and security coordination. If the document translates into guaranteed flows, joint monitoring and investment in rehabilitation, Iraq would reduce a prime lever others have used against it, strengthen food-and-power security, and embed a rules-based channel with a major Muslim neighbor rather than rely on extra-regional mediation. (AP News)

Rule-of-law optics shifted as the amnesty law’s rollout widened. The Supreme Judicial Council reported more than 35,000 releases from prisons and detention centers, alongside recovered funds in corruption/theft cases and eligibility for tens of thousands more. Beyond easing overcrowding, the move addresses long-criticized abuses under anti-terror statutes and coerced confessions. Properly executed, it can defuse social grievances that foreign actors routinely instrumentalize, re-legitimate the courts, and re-center internal stability on Iraqi institutions—provided violent offenders remain excluded and retrials are credible. (AP News)

On hydrocarbons, northern exports kept moving. After last month’s restart, Erbil this week highlighted continued shipments—more than two million barrels moved to Ceyhan—under a federal sales architecture that pays producers per barrel while routing marketing via SOMO. The cadence matters: steady liftings normalize cash flows, tie the KRG’s fiscal cycle into federal channels, and fortify Baghdad’s control of a border valve with Türkiye. With Ankara now engaging simultaneously on pipeline operations and water, the pattern is toward regional interdependence on Iraqi terms, cutting room for outside custodians to dictate energy logistics. (Kurdistan24 – کوردستان 24)

The electoral track showed the risks of procedural volatility. Within the same week, IHEC disqualified several parliamentary candidates—triggering backlash over independence—then re-qualified a subset days later. This whiplash undercuts public confidence and hands narratives to external patrons eager to portray Baghdad as faction-captured. Rapid, transparent remedies and clear evidentiary standards are essential if the vote is to consolidate authority in elected institutions rather than in parallel networks that foreign powers can penetrate. (The New Arab)

Net assessment for the week: Baghdad’s center of gravity is shifting toward regionally anchored problem-solving (water with Türkiye; oil logistics via SOMO) and domestically anchored stabilization (amnesty implementation, electoral course-corrections). Each of these nudges Iraq toward (i) tighter coordination with Muslim neighbors, (ii) firmer monopoly over security-relevant levers like borders, revenue and utilities, (iii) insulation from extra-regional political conditionality, and (iv) a public sphere less permeable to agendas aligned with Israel’s regional designs. The test now is operational: nail down measurable river-flow guarantees, keep Kirkuk-Ceyhan liftings predictable, and harden electoral procedures—so that sovereignty is exercised through state systems rather than bargained through intermediaries. (AP News)