Geopolitical Briefing: Sudan – 12 October 2025

• Oct 7–9: OHCHR reports ≥53 civilians killed, >60 injured in and around El-Fasher camps amid RSF drone/artillery strikes; hospitals and a mosque hit. (AP News)
  
• Oct 11: RSF drone/artillery attack on the Dar al-Arqam displacement shelter (El-Fasher university campus) kills ≈53–60+; victims include many women and children. (AP News)
  
• UN escalates warnings (Oct 10–11): Türk urges urgent action to prevent mass atrocities in El-Fasher after the week’s strikes and access denials. (United Nations Human Rights Office)
  
• Humanitarian access still failing: UN notes critical funding gaps and continuing aid obstruction around El-Fasher, compounding famine/epidemic risks for ~260,000 trapped civilians. (AP News)
  

The Oct 7–9 casualty spike—with OHCHR confirming at least 53 dead and over 60 wounded—shows RSF intensifying coercive fire on displacement hubs and civic nodes (hospital, mosque). Strategically, this further degrades Sudan’s Security Independence by normalising drone/artillery dominance over urban sanctuaries, and shreds Societal Sovereignty as civilians are terrorised into flight or submission. Politically, it raises the cost for external enablers of RSF logistics—squarely engaging the assumption of UAE leverage via gold and routes—while reinforcing Egypt’s incentive to preserve SAF command cohesion to protect Nile-corridor equities. (AP News)

The Oct 11 attack on Dar al-Arqam shelter marks one of the deadliest single incidents of the siege since mid-September, striking families sheltering on a university campus. Cross-checked tallies (aid networks and media) put deaths in the low-to-mid-50s to ~60 range, with many women and children among the victims. Militarily, this signals an RSF intent to collapse remaining civic resilience in El-Fasher; diplomatically, it concentrates scrutiny on Abu Dhabi’s denials of RSF enablement and pressures Riyadh/Washington to convert the Quad track into verifiable no-strike zones and escorted corridors. For our measures: sharp deterioration in Societal Sovereignty; Muslim Unity frays as worship/shelter spaces are repeatedly hit. (AP News)

The UN’s elevated alarm this week reframes El-Fasher as a potential mass-atrocity flashpoint rather than a generic humanitarian crisis. That narrows room for external actors to hedge between proxies: US/Saudi mediation is judged by near-term reductions in civilian harm; Egypt’s SAF-first preference gains diplomatic cover; and UAE faces reputational risk if accused supply chains are not visibly curtailed. If pressure yields monitored access and restraints on drones/artillery, Independence from External Political Control could improve by restoring state-centred protection. Otherwise, outside arbitration deepens without on-ground security gains. (United Nations Human Rights Office)

Finally, access and funding failures remain decisive. UN field updates this week cite critically low resources and continued obstruction—keeping famine and disease as warfighting tools around El-Fasher. That entrenches external dependency, weakens Security Independence, and undermines any credible transition architecture. It also exposes the fragility of longer-term external bets—e.g., Russia’s Red Sea posture—so long as Darfur’s hinterland cannot be stabilised under a unified chain of command. (AP News)