Geopolitical Briefing: Türkiye
— 20 June 2025
Key Developments (last 7 days):
- Erdogan vows to boost medium- & long-range missile production, citing escalation between Israel & Iran
- U.S. withdraws from two military bases in northeastern Syria, prompting SDF concern
- Iran’s FM slated to attend OIC foreign ministers’ meeting in Istanbul, hosted by Türkiye
- Erdogan pledges support for Türkiye-Azerbaijan peace efforts, engaging Armenian leadership
- Turkish Airlines mulls minority investment in Spain’s Air Europa, marking aviation expansion
1. Missile Production Ramp-Up
President Erdogan announced plans to significantly increase Turkey’s production of medium- and long-range missiles—strategic air defence capabilities—emphasizing deterrence amid rising Israel–Iran tensions. While not directly involved, Türkiye is pursuing independent defense tech development, narrowing its technological gap with U.S. and Israeli systems (reuters.com, en.wikipedia.org, apnews.com, reuters.com, reuters.com, reuters.com).
Strategic impact: Enhances Türkiye's control over its national security and decreases dependence on external military suppliers.
2. U.S. Drawdown in Syria Raises Kurdish Concerns
The U.S. withdrew troops from two additional bases in Hasaka province, reducing its footprint in northeastern Syria. SDF commanders voiced alarm over a resurgence in ISIS activity (reuters.com).
Strategic impact: Opens space for Türkiye to consolidate influence in northern Syria and reshape regional security dynamics without U.S. presence.
3. Istanbul Hosts OIC Summit Amid Middle East Tensions
Iran’s FM Abbas Araqchi will attend a special OIC meeting in Istanbul, hosted by Türkiye, to discuss recent Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure. Türkiye has vocally condemned Israel’s actions and backed Iran’s right to self-defence (reuters.com).
Strategic impact: Reinforces Türkiye’s leadership role within Muslim diplomatic circles and projects unity among Islamic states.
4. Support for Azerbaijan–Armenia Peace
During a meeting with Armenian PM Pashinyan, President Erdogan committed Türkiye’s support for lasting peace efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan (reuters.com).
Strategic impact: Expands Türkiye’s regional diplomatic influence and fosters integration with Muslim-majority allies, lessening ties dominated by Western mediation.
5. Turkish Airlines Eyes Stake in Air Europa
Turkish Airlines is reportedly considering a minority investment in Spain’s Air Europa, with submitted bids expected by early July (reuters.com).
Strategic impact: Strengthens Türkiye’s global aviation reach and economic integration with Europe, advancing its role as an East–West trade hub.
Summary:
In this issue, Türkiye advanced its strategic autonomy through defence industrial upgrades, leveraged regional diplomatic platforms, capitalised on shifting military balance in Syria, and pursued economic expansion via aviation. Each development reinforces Ankara’s strategic objectives of enhancing its security control, asserting influence within the Muslim world, and embedding itself as a critical regional power.
