Geopolitical Briefing: Iraq
— 20 June 2025
- Iraq lodged a complaint at the UN Security Council over Israeli warplanes entering Iraqi airspace.
- The Iran-aligned militia Kataib Hezbollah issued threats to U.S. forces in Iraq if Washington intervenes in the Israel–Iran conflict.
- Militias in Iraq coordinated with Iranian proxies to prepare plans targeting U.S. forces if the U.S. strikes Iran.
- Iraqi authorities urged the U.S. government to prevent Israel from using Iraqi airspace for attacks on Iran.
- Iraq faces renewed pressure on its electricity grid and water shortages amid climate stress, prompting domestic planning efforts.
UN complaint over Israeli airspace violations (20 June 2025)
Iraq formally raised the issue before the UN Security Council, stating that 50 Israeli warplanes violated its airspace, flying across southern cities including Basra, Najaf, and Karbala. The Iraqi UN envoy characterized this as a threat to sacred sites and fundamental international law (reliefweb.int, reuters.com, reuters.com, understandingwar.org, reuters.com, thearabweekly.com). This diplomatic escalation reflects Iraq’s efforts to maintain territorial integrity and project sovereign control over its airspace, asserting legal boundaries against regional powers.
Militia warning to U.S. forces (15 June 2025)
Iran-aligned militia group Kataib Hezbollah warned that they would resume operations targeting U.S. military assets in Iraq and across the region if the U.S. supports any escalation between Israel and Iran (reuters.com). The warning highlights the ongoing challenge Iraq faces in regulating allied non-state actors and securing internal security space without foreign interference, while signaling limits on Washington’s influence.
Militia war-planning with Iranian proxies (17 June 2025)
Iran-aligned militias including Kataib Hezbollah, Sayyid al-Shuhada, Nujaba, and Ansar Allah al-Awfiya announced a coordinated strategy—drawn up on 17 June—to attack U.S. forces inside Iraq should America intervene directly against Iran (understandingwar.org). This points to growing militarized autonomy among domestic and regional armed actors, complicating Iraq’s ability to regulate security and affirm its state monopoly on force.
Diplomatic appeal to prevent airspace use (14 June 2025)
Baghdad publicly appealed to the U.S. to restrict Israeli warplanes from using Iraqi airspace for strikes against Iran, invoking bilateral agreements and international law (reuters.com). This diplomatic step reinforces Iraq’s bid to assert sovereign authority over its strategic air routes and signal its neutrality, aiming to restrain external military maneuvers that could drag the country into wider regional confrontations.
Electricity and water shortages compel domestic planning
Facing one of its worst electricity shortages and water reserves at historically low levels, Iraq’s government has begun revamping national planning, including reforms to energy pricing and resource-allocation strategies (chathamhouse.org, watchers.news). These efforts illustrate Baghdad’s growing recognition of its responsibility to secure essential public goods, reduce foreign dependency, and bolster resilience amid environmental stresses.
