Geopolitical Briefing: Sub‑Saharan Africa
5 August 2025
- South Africa declares 30 % U.S. tariff punitive, pledges to pivot toward African and Asian markets.
- Togo flags rising jihadist violence in its north: JNIM expands operations, deepens Sahel alliance coordination.
- Morocco mediates release of Moroccan drivers kidnapped by IS‑Sahel, reinforcing Rabat’s regional influence.
- France’s West Africa policy shift: minister asserts regional insecurity no longer France’s concern.
South Africa rebukes U.S. tariffs and accelerates market diversification (4 August 2025)
President Ramaphosa critiqued the incoming U.S. 30 % tariffs on South African exports as “very punitive” and threatened significant job losses. South Africa will intensify efforts to negotiate trade reprieves and simultaneously deepen export ties within the African continent and Asia. (modernghana.com, reuters.com, apnews.com, reuters.com)
This represents a deliberate strategic move to diminish reliance on Western trade channels and align economic policy toward intra‑African and Asian partners, aiming for greater economic autonomy and reduced Western leverage.
Togo reports jihadist spillover from Sahel, ratifies security cooperation with CES members (29 July 2025)
Foreign Minister Robert Dussey revealed that Al Qaeda affiliate JNIM has conducted fifteen attacks in northern Togo in 2025, causing dozens of civilian and military casualties. Togo’s forces remain deployed, with active security collaboration ongoing with Burkina Faso. Togo also serves diplomatically as a conduit between ECOWAS and the Confederation of Sahel States. (reuters.com)
This trend evidences expanding Sahel instability into coastal states, prompting deeper integration with military‑led neighbours to bolster border integrity and collective security capacity.
Malian and Moroccan agencies secure release of four Moroccan drivers from IS‑Sahel custody (today)
Malian intelligence and Morocco’s foreign intelligence service jointly secured the release of four Moroccan truck drivers abducted in January while en route to Niamey. The drivers were recovered in Mali and appeared in video alongside Mali’s junta leader Goïta. (apnews.com)
This illustrates emerging diplomatic leverage for Morocco in the Sahel and increasing regional security cooperation outside Western frameworks, further weakening Western strategic influence in critical corridors.
France publicly disavows operational responsibility for Sahel instability (week of 25 July 2025)
France’s minister for Francophone affairs declared that addressing West Africa’s security crisis is no longer within France’s remit, following the handover of its last military base in the region. France signalled a shift to non‑military engagement modalities such as aid, not security deployments. (reuters.com)
This formal abandonment of security involvement underscores the diminishing role of France in Sahel affairs, increasing opportunities for states to recalibrate with alternative partners, thereby advancing political sovereignty and reduced Western influence.