Geopolitical Briefing: North Africa (Excluding Egypt)
— 8 August 2025
Major Geopolitical Developments (2–8 August 2025)
- Libya’s NOC signs a landmark MoU with ExxonMobil to resume offshore oil exploration.
- Turkey, Italy, and Libya convene in Istanbul to coordinate on migration and regional stability.
- Greece signals potential extension of asylum restrictions against North African maritime arrivals.
- Public letter in The Guardian underscores enduring Sahrawi rejection of Moroccan rule over Western Sahara.
Libya’s NOC Re-Engages With ExxonMobil
On 4 August, Libya’s National Oil Corporation signed a significant Memorandum of Understanding with U.S. energy giant ExxonMobil, marking the end of a decade-long pause in offshore cooperation. The deal focuses on geological and geophysical surveys in four offshore blocks, signaling renewed international investment and stabilization of Libya’s vital energy sector. As a sovereign act of resource control and external engagement, this development bolsters Libya’s economic autonomy and could shift power balances within its fractured governance structure.(Reuters, Reuters, Reuters, The Guardian)
Tripartite Summit: Turkey, Italy, Libya Aim to Manage Migration
On 1 August in Istanbul, Turkish President Erdogan, Italian PM Meloni, and Libyan PM Dbeibah held a summit addressing migration flows from Libya, regional cooperation, and political stability. Meloni praised migration control successes with Turkey, while Erdogan called for sustainable solutions. The leaders agreed to reconvene after technical-level talks. This level of diplomatic coordination enhances regional integration and presents Libya as a pivotal node in trans-Mediterranean security frameworks.(Reuters, AP News)
Greece May Extend Asylum Processing Ban Amid Migration Dip
Facing a sharp decline in migrant arrivals from North Africa—from over 2,600 to under 1,000 weekly since July—Greece is considering extending its temporary suspension of asylum processing if flows rise again. Proposed legislation could impose prison sentences up to five years for illegal entry, excluding those fleeing conflict. Greece is also increasing naval patrols and training Libyan coastguard personnel. These moves underline Greece’s posture of securitized migration management and signal deeper entanglement with North African states in policing external borders.(Reuters)
Letter Voices Sahrawi Resistance to Moroccan Sovereignty Claims
A letter in The Guardian (7 August) reiterated that Sahrawis overwhelmingly reject Moroccan rule over Western Sahara, citing the International Court of Justice’s position and the UN’s long-stalled referendum process. The author argues that Morocco’s refusal to allow such a referendum contradicts claims of popular support. This public pushback directly challenges prevailing Western backing of Morocco’s autonomy plan and may fracture consensus-building in international diplomacy.(The Guardian, Financial Times)
