Geopolitical Briefing: Pakistan – 23 August 2025
• Chinese diplomacy deepens via CPEC 2.0 and Beijing visit plans
• ADB steps in with critical infrastructure funding (rail upgrade and mining support)
• Asia Development Bank funds Reko Diq project to offset Chinese debt pressure
• New displacement and militant operations in Bajaur elicit domestic backlash
• India extends Pakistani airspace ban, exacerbates bilateral tensions
Full Analysis
1. Chinese diplomacy deepens via CPEC 2.0 and Beijing visit plans
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Islamabad (about 21 August) and highlighted expanding cooperation in agriculture, mining, industrial development, and reaffirmed support for Pakistan’s sovereignty and anti-terror measures. He also emphasized strengthening CPEC amid global economic disruptions and ahead of the upcoming SCO summit, which PM Sharif will attend in Beijing.(Arab News, The Times of India, Reuters, Financial Times, Arab News, Arab News, Reuters)
This aligns squarely with Pakistan’s strategic drift toward China—economic alignment, security dependence for safeguarding Chinese personnel and projects, and independence from external leverage by balancing growing U.S. influence. The approach leverages infrastructure and strategic diplomacy to reinforce Pakistan’s societal sovereignty and consolidate economic lifelines through CPEC 2.0.
2. ADB steps in with critical infrastructure funding (rail upgrade and mining support)
The Asian Development Bank approved a ₹2 billion upgrade of Pakistan’s Karachi–Rohri railway section, stepping in where Chinese funding was delayed. This railway is essential to link the Reko Diq copper mining project with export routes—thus integrating infrastructure and mining strategy.(Reuters)
The shift toward multilateral western-friendly finance suggests Pakistan's pragmatic recalibration—mitigating over-dependence on Chinese funding while securing economic infrastructure. This move helps bolster security independence (ensuring resource transit), enhances societal sovereignty through economic infrastructure, and signals a subtle hedge between Chinese alliance and diversified foreign backing.
3. ADB backs Reko Diq project, reducing reliance on Chinese capital
In addition to the railway upgrade, ADB also authorized a $300 million loan for the Reko Diq copper-gold project plus a $110 million credit guarantee for Balochistan, marking its first mining investment there in decades.(AP News, Financial Times)
This funding diversifies Pakistan’s financial partnerships, aligns with security independence by developing strategic mineral wealth, and improves independence from external political control by introducing Western institutions into high-value resource sectors, thus reducing reliance on Chinese capital—even as CPEC expanded.
4. New displacement and militant operations in Bajaur elicit domestic backlash
Pakistan’s “targeted operation” in Bajaur, bordering Afghanistan, displaced approximately 50,000 people. Local tribal elders and political actors—including PTI, ANP, and JI—protested, citing constitutional overreach and civilian harm under “Operation Sarbakaf.”(Arab News)
The internal backlash reflects friction in balancing security independence and societal sovereignty. Citizens demand constitutional adherence and protection from state coercion. Politically, this domestic unrest could limit the military’s freedom of action, pushing Islamabad to consider more politically attuned counterinsurgency strategies to preserve stability while countering militant threats.
5. India extends Pakistani airspace ban, exacerbating bilateral tensions
India has extended its airspace ban on Pakistani aircraft until 24 September. This continued restriction complicates Pakistan’s aviation operations and underscores persistent diplomatic and security tensions.(The Economic Times)
The airspace ban harms Pakistan’s operational autonomy and sovereignty in regional air transit. It intensifies strategic friction with India, underscoring the Kashmir reunification objective and shrinking diplomatic space. Pakistan may feel increased pressure to demonstrate external balancing—potentially accelerating its alignment with China.
