Geopolitical Briefing: Bangladesh

— 23 August 2025

• Fresh gunfire from Myanmar’s Rakhine spilled across the Naf this weekend; BGB tightened the Teknaf sector as small groups attempted crossings. (Prothomalo, The Business Standard)
  
• New Delhi publicly rejected Dhaka’s allegation of anti‑Bangladesh activities on Indian soil; BSF–BGB DG‑level talks are set for 25–28 Aug in Dhaka as India imposed a border night curfew in Meghalaya. (External Affairs India, The Times of India)
  
• Gas shortages shuttered multiple gas‑fired plants; output constraints and allocation shortfalls highlight continued reliance on LNG and pipeline governance fixes. (The Business Standard)
  
• Funding cuts forced mass school closures in the Rohingya camps, driving a rise in child marriage and child labour. (Reuters)
  
• Chittagong port turnaround improved since February, but customs bottlenecks still slow clearances; Navy‑managed operations at NCT continue. (Prothomalo, The Business Standard)
  

Clashes in northern Rakhine reignited audible exchanges of fire across the Naf on Saturday, breaking an 18‑month lull and prompting Border Guard Bangladesh to reinforce riverine patrols as some Rohingya gathered to attempt crossings. Local outlets in Teknaf reported intermittent gunfire overnight and visible BGB posture adjustments through the day. The renewed instability on the Myanmar littoral raises the risk of irregular inflows and maritime crime in the Naf estuary, pushing Dhaka to harden border control while preserving freedom of action along its own coastline and approaches to the Bay. (Prothomalo, The Business Standard)

Diplomatic friction with India sharpened mid‑week when the Indian MEA formally dismissed Dhaka’s claim that banned Awami League figures were conducting “anti‑Bangladesh activities” from Indian territory, calling the allegation “misplaced.” Against that backdrop—but also to manage routine frictions—the BSF and BGB will hold Director‑General level talks in Dhaka on 25–28 August, with Indian districts along the frontier already tightening curfews to deter illicit movement. For Bangladesh, institutionalising problem‑solving in a structured forum limits unilateral leverage from its largest neighbour and helps keep the land border compartmentalised while maritime trade priorities expand. (External Affairs India, The Times of India)

Energy security remained under strain. New data show 51 gas‑fired plants need roughly 2.42 bcf/d of gas but receive barely 0.85–1.05 bcf/d; at least 13 units (3.3 GW) are fully offline, with others derated, as distribution companies fall far short of demand. The squeeze increases spot‑LNG exposure and forces costly dispatch decisions toward oil‑fired capacity, eroding fiscal room. Stabilising supply through diversified LNG sourcing and tighter loss‑control on the grid would directly support port‑led growth on the Bay and reduce vulnerability to external fuel politics—key if Dhaka is to calibrate autonomy from non‑Muslim suppliers while deepening energy links with friendlier markets. (The Business Standard)

Humanitarian risk escalated: after more than 4,500 UNICEF learning centres closed, some 227,500 Rohingya children lost schooling, with agencies documenting upticks in child marriage and child labour. The aid shortfall (UNHCR’s Bangladesh appeal is barely ~38% funded) threatens camp stability and increases incentives for sea‑borne smuggling, trafficking, and onward movement. Effective containment—coupled with pressure on Myanmar through regional partners—helps Bangladesh preserve internal order and keep the Bay of Bengal’s coastal belt from sliding into a security‑development sink that external actors could exploit. (Reuters)

On the maritime‑commercial side, traders report berth waits at Chittagong easing since February, though clearance delays and yard congestion persist. A Navy‑run entity taking over New Mooring Container Terminal in July coincided with faster ship turnaround, but customs throughput and last‑mile security remain the choke points. Sustained improvements here would hard‑wire Bangladesh’s access to seaborne inputs (including LNG) and export routes, strengthening strategic depth at sea while diluting single‑country pressure from the land border. (Prothomalo, The Business Standard)