Geopolitical Briefing: Sudan – 24 August 2025

• RSF kill 13 civilians on the El‑Fasher–Tawila road and shell El‑Fasher’s Southern Hospital; rescuers report eight abductions from Abu Shouk camp. (AP News, Xinhua News, Barron's)
  
• After the 20 Aug drone strike on a WFP convoy near Mellit, regional and UN voices escalate censure; warring parties continue to trade blame. (AP News, OCHA, GCC-SG, Reuters)
  
• El‑Fasher front: SAF and allied Darfur Joint Forces claim they repelled a major multi‑axis RSF assault around 20 Aug, while RSF tighten the siege and assert gains in southern neighbourhoods. (Sudan Tribune, موقع دارفور٢٤ الاخباري)
  
• Health emergency deepens: South Darfur authorities report 158 cholera deaths since May; WHO had warned of rapid spread across Sudan this month. (Arab News, Al Arabiya English, Reuters)
  

RSF violence around El‑Fasher—roadside killings of mainly women and children, the shelling of Southern Hospital, and reported abductions from Abu Shouk—demonstrates a coercive strategy to break the last SAF holdout in Darfur by terrorising civilian lifelines. This erodes the state’s practical monopoly on security and constrains any unified command. It also heightens reputational costs for external backers (notably the UAE, given RSF reliance on gold logistics) and tightens Cairo’s calculus to sustain SAF control in the north and along Nile corridors. (AP News, Xinhua News, Barron's)

The drone strike on a 16‑truck WFP convoy (20 Aug) has triggered a new round of regional and UN condemnation—GCC’s formal censure and UNOCHA’s warning—while both sides trade blame. Materially, this keeps famine and disease as battlefield instruments by denying access, tests U.S.–Saudi leverage from the Jeddah track to compel safe corridors, and indirectly increases the transactional value of any actor able to guarantee passage (including Emirati‑linked routes and Egyptian channels). The diplomatic tempo is up, but deterrence on the ground is not yet evident. (AP News, OCHA, GCC-SG, Reuters)

On the El‑Fasher front, SAF/JF claims of repelling a large RSF push around 20 Aug suggest the city’s core remains contested yet defensible, even as RSF tighten the siege and claim tactical gains in southern districts. If sustained, SAF’s ability to blunt multi‑axis assaults preserves bargaining chips for any talks and limits RSF’s bid to translate siege into governance. For external actors: Egypt’s influence over SAF doctrine remains pivotal; Emirati‑linked RSF logistics face rising attrition; Saudi/U.S. mediation leverage hinges on turning these tactical stalls into enforceable access guarantees; and Russia’s longer‑term Red Sea ambitions remain hostage to whether Port Sudan’s hinterland can be stabilised. (Sudan Tribune, موقع دارفور٢٤ الاخباري)

Cholera mortality data from South Darfur (158 deaths since May) confirms a widening health catastrophe that amplifies the coercive impact of siege warfare. The outbreak’s spread, flagged by WHO earlier in August, multiplies civilian dependency on cross‑border aid and clean‑water corridors. Strategically, epidemic dynamics penalise prolonged RSF blockades and raise pressure on all external patrons to enable access, while also diverting SAF capacity to civil‑defence tasks—degrading national resilience during critical operations. (Arab News, Al Arabiya English, Reuters)