Geopolitical Briefing: Iran — 31 August 2025

• Nuclear crisis escalates: E3 triggers UN “snapback” on August 28; Tehran’s MPs float NPT-exit legislation; partial IAEA return sparks a domestic fight. (Financial Times, The Guardian, Institute for the Study of War, Al Jazeera)
  
• Security state restructured: New National Defense Council created and Ali Larijani installed atop the SNSC after the June war. (Reuters, Khamenei.ir)
  
• Mass deportations of Afghans accelerate: UN figures show extraordinary returns since June, drawing mounting humanitarian warnings. (Reuters, UNHCR)
  
• Lebanon front hardens: US-backed plan to disarm Hezbollah by year-end faces immediate rejection; Berri calls for a Lebanese-led dialogue. (Reuters, AP News)
  
• Multipolar pivot on display: Pezeshkian attends the Tianjin SCO summit; Tehran’s 20-year strategic pact with Moscow is now through parliament. (Reuters, Xinhua News)
  

1) Nuclear file: E3 snapback, NPT-exit bill talk, and a guarded IAEA return

On 28 August, the UK, France and Germany activated the JCPOA snapback pathway, citing Iran’s refusal to fully restore inspections and growing stocks of highly enriched uranium. European reporting notes a 30-day window tied to the UNSC process, while Tehran blasted the move as unlawful. In parallel, Iranian lawmakers on 28 August unveiled an emergency bill to withdraw from the NPT and halt cooperation with the IAEA, a gambit widely read as pressure on the E3. One day earlier, 27 August, IAEA personnel returned in limited fashion, with ministers stressing this was not a resumption of full cooperation; hardline MPs publicly protested the decision. The combined effect is to harden positions ahead of the UNSC timeline while keeping a thin channel for technical dialogue. (Financial Times, The Guardian, Institute for the Study of War, Al Jazeera)

2) Security architecture: new National Defense Council and Larijani’s elevation

Following June’s Israel–Iran air war, Tehran is codifying crisis-era command arrangements. On 3–4 August the Supreme National Security Council established a National Defense Council to centralize defense planning. Days later, on 5 August, President Masoud Pezeshkian named Ali Larijani as SNSC secretary; on 7 August Khamenei formalized Larijani as his representative to the SNSC. The pairing of a new defense body with a seasoned insider signals consolidation around a tighter war-management core and a calibrated interface with the presidency. (Reuters, Khamenei.ir)

3) Afghan deportations: scale, speed, and political messaging

Since June, Iran has accelerated removals of Afghan nationals at a pace that UN agencies describe as extraordinary. Reuters and UNHCR reporting through July–August place returns in the hundreds of thousands, with daily crossings at Islam Qala spiking and humanitarian capacity strained. Tehran frames the campaign as a national-security necessity after the June war; Kabul protests the expulsions as violations of Islamic and humanitarian norms. The policy resonates domestically with a securitized narrative, yet it deepens regional scrutiny and carries reputational risk across Muslim constituencies angered by scenes at the border. (Reuters, UNHCR)

4) Lebanon: disarmament push meets resistance

Washington’s envoy previewed a Lebanese plan to induce Hezbollah’s disarmament by 31 December 2025, coupled with an Israeli framework for withdrawal. Within days, Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri called for a national dialogue, rejecting outside pressure and insisting any decision be Lebanese-led; Hezbollah publicly opposes the plan absent Israeli pullbacks and cessation of strikes. For Tehran, Hezbollah remains a primary deterrent against Israel. The US-backed sequencing is thus read in Tehran as an attempt to erode that deterrent under the cover of state reform. (Reuters, AP News)

5) Multipolar diplomacy: SCO optics and the Russia pact

Iran is leaning into non-Western groupings as sanctions intensify. President Pezeshkian arrived today in Tianjin for the SCO summit, where Moscow and Beijing are showcasing a bloc narrative of strategic autonomy. Iran’s message centers on multilateralism and sanctions evasion via eastern corridors. Structurally, Tehran’s 20-year strategic partnership with Russia—signed in January and approved by Iran’s parliament on 21 May—anchors that eastward tilt in defense, energy and finance. The timing, on the heels of E3 snapback, underlines Tehran’s view that survival and leverage now run through Eurasian platforms. (Reuters, Xinhua News)