Geopolitical Briefing: Sub-Saharan Africa – 31 Aug 2025

• Sudan: RSF’s Hemedti sworn in as head of a parallel “government”; El-Fasher shelling intensifies the siege. (Reuters, AP News, Financial Times)
  
• Ethiopia–Nigeria: $2.5bn Dangote–EIH fertiliser JV (3 mtpa) signed; Ethiopia retains 40% equity. (Reuters, eih.et)
  
• Nigeria: NNPC claims pipeline theft is “nearly eliminated,” with receipts “close to 100%.” (Reuters, allAfrica.com)
  
• Mali/Sahel: New investigation details Wagner/Africa Corps frictions and failures inside Mali’s security apparatus. (Reuters, The Sentry)
  
• South Africa (G20 chair): launches first-ever G20 taskforce on global wealth inequality, led by Joseph Stiglitz. (Reuters, AP News)
  

Sudan – parallel authority and the Darfur siege:
Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo’s swearing-in as head of a rival RSF-backed authority formalises state fragmentation and edges Sudan toward de facto partition. Concurrent RSF shelling of El-Fasher (at least 24 killed, 55 wounded on Aug 28) and UNICEF’s alarm over catastrophic child malnutrition underscore the city’s role as the last SAF redoubt in Darfur and a humanitarian choke-point. For our measures: Muslim Unity deteriorates as intra-Muslim actors split; Security Independence erodes as rival centers of force entrench; Independence from External Political Control is weakened amid alleged outside enabling of the RSF; Societal Sovereignty is subordinated to wartime predation; Anti-Zionist posture is largely irrelevant to the current tactical dynamics. Strategic implication: unless a unified command structure re-emerges, Darfur’s battlespace will keep dictating national political outcomes. (Reuters, AP News, Financial Times)

Ethiopia–Nigeria industrial integration – the Gode fertiliser complex:
The $2.5bn Dangote–Ethiopian Investment Holdings agreement (Dangote 60%, EIH 40%) to build a 3-million-ton urea plant in Gode advances resource control (capturing more value from domestic gas and reducing fertiliser import dependence) and intra-African trade by positioning Ethiopia as a regional supplier. It also diversifies great-power exposure by pairing an African investor with an Ethiopian sovereign vehicle—incrementally strengthening Independence from External Political Control and Security Independence via food-systems resilience. Execution risks include gas feedstock and infrastructure reliability in the Somali Region; however, the state equity stake aligns incentives for expedited enabling works. (Reuters, eih.et)

Nigeria – oil pipeline security and fiscal sovereignty:
NNPC’s assertion that pipeline theft has been “nearly eliminated,” with terminal receipts “close to 100%,” if sustained, materially restores control over natural resources and bolsters Security Independence in the Niger Delta. Improved line integrity supports output and revenue, strengthening FX reserves and fiscal space—core to Political Sovereignty and to reducing vulnerability to external conditionality. Watch-points: independent verification over coming months, and whether criminal networks reconstitute as enforcement attention shifts. (Reuters, allAfrica.com)

Mali/Sahel – Russian footprint under strain:
Fresh reporting synthesising The Sentry’s August study indicates Wagner’s operational failures, frictions with Malian forces, and a messy transition to Russia’s state-run Africa Corps. This undercuts the premise that pivoting from Western partners to Moscow yields superior security outcomes. For our measures, Security Independence appears compromised by reliance on opaque foreign actors; Independence from External Political Control is tested when foreign units seek mining rents and privileged access; Societal Sovereignty suffers amid elevated civilian harm. Net effect: Bamako’s bet on Russian security provision has yet to translate into durable territorial control, complicating the AES bloc’s broader strategy. (Reuters, The Sentry)

South Africa’s G20 initiative – agenda-setting as sovereignty tool:
By launching a G20 taskforce on global wealth inequality (Stiglitz-led), Pretoria uses its chairmanship to legitimise Global South priorities inside a premier coordination forum. This is soft-power statecraft that enhances Political Sovereignty (agenda control) while supporting regional integration (the AU’s G20 seat) and contesting residual neocolonial financial architectures. While not a hard-security move, reframing global rules affects debt, trade, and development finance levers that shape African autonomy. (Reuters, AP News)