Geopolitical Briefing: Pakistan – 14 September 2025
• Pakistan conducts multi-day raids against TTP near the Afghan border; at least 19 soldiers and 35–45 militants killed across Bajaur, South Waziristan and Lower Dir (11–13 Sep).
• Islamabad assumes chair of the SCO Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) for 2025–26; visit by Türkiye’s Defence Minister (8–10 Sep) advances defence-industrial ties.
• President Asif Ali Zardari begins a 10-day visit to China (12–21 Sep) focused on CPEC coordination and provincial-level engagements (Chengdu, Shanghai, Xinjiang).
• IMF flags review of Pakistan’s flood response and FY26 budget agility as monsoon deaths and displacement mount; rescue boat capsize near Multan underscores operational strain.
• Red Sea subsea cable cuts (7 Sep) degrade connectivity in Pakistan, exposing digital-infrastructure vulnerabilities during concurrent crises.
Pakistan’s security forces executed successive raids on TTP hideouts along the northwest frontier, reporting heavy contact in Bajaur, South Waziristan and Lower Dir with 19 soldiers and 35–45 militants killed between 11–13 September. The army publicly pressed Kabul to curb cross-border sanctuary. Militarily, the tempo signals intent to reassert initiative after a summer of attrition; strategically, it aims to restore autonomous control over border districts without trading political leverage to outside brokers. Risks: retaliation cycles and community displacement could widen the civil–security gap if force protection crowds out population security. (Reuters)
On 10 September Pakistan assumed the chair of SCO-RATS, positioning itself to shape regional CT coordination and intelligence sharing. In parallel, Türkiye’s Defence Minister Yaşar Güler met PM Shehbaz Sharif in Islamabad (8–10 Sep), with both sides highlighting defence-industrial and trade goals. Together, these moves deepen non-Western security partnerships, hedge against unilateral pressure, and diversify kit and training pipelines—useful for sustaining operations while limiting dependence on any single external patron. (Dawn)
President Zardari’s 12–21 September swing through China (Chengdu, Shanghai, Xinjiang) is designed to lock in CPEC Phase-II deliverables and sub-national implementation while coordinating on protection of Chinese personnel. The itinerary—confirmed by both foreign ministries—advances Pakistan’s economic lifeline and reduces exposure to Western conditionality, albeit at the cost of heightened insurgent targeting of Chinese assets if security lags. (Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
The IMF said its upcoming EFF review will assess Pakistan’s flood spending and the flexibility of the FY26 budget. With Punjab and Sindh still inundated, fatalities continue to climb and a rescue boat capsize near Multan highlighted overstretched response capacity. Fiscal space will tighten as food prices rise and emergency outlays grow, inviting tougher program benchmarks; that dynamic can translate into external leverage unless offset by concessional inflows and domestic revenue measures. (Reuters)
NetBlocks and Reuters reported that Red Sea cable cuts on 7 September disrupted connectivity in multiple countries including Pakistan. The outage—arriving amid kinetic operations and flood relief—exposes critical-infrastructure fragility with knock-on effects for command, logistics and financial services, strengthening the case for diversified routes and domestic redundancy. (Reuters)