Geopolitical Briefing: Nigeria – 21 September 2025

• Tinubu lifts emergency rule in oil-rich Rivers State and reinstates elected officials. (Reuters)
  
• Finance Ministry suspends the newly introduced 4% FOB levy on imports after nationwide backlash. (Reuters)
  
• Headline inflation eases again in August to 20.12% (fifth monthly drop), strengthening the case for monetary easing. (Reuters)
  
• Nigeria confirms participation at China’s Xiangshan security forum, signaling active engagement with Beijing’s defence diplomacy. (Reuters)
  

Rivers State emergency lifted:
 Ending six months of emergency rule in the Niger Delta’s political and energy hub reduces governance risk around pipelines and export terminals. Restoring the governor and legislature should lower sabotage and protest incentives tied to political paralysis. In Realist terms, this supports Security Independence (fewer disruptions to oil revenue that funds security) and bolsters Regional Power Projection by stabilising Nigeria’s core rent base. It also marginally improves Independence from External Political Control by reducing the need for outside mediation in a vital province. (Reuters)

FOB levy suspended:
 Rolling back the 4% Free-on-Board import levy reflects rapid policy course-correction to avert cost-push inflation and trade frictions. The suspension eases pressure on manufacturers and airlines and preserves political capital amid living-cost strain. This improves Societal Sovereignty (policy responsiveness to domestic stakeholders) and, by protecting supply chains, indirectly supports Security Independence (maintaining fiscal room for defence and internal operations). It also tempers the perception of arbitrary taxation that could push firms toward external financing dependencies, aiding Independence from External Political Control. (Reuters)

Disinflation momentum:
 The NBS print of 20.12% for August extends disinflation to a fifth month, largely on softer food prices after the methodology overhaul earlier in the year. If sustained, this opens space for the CBN to contemplate rate cuts, lowering debt-service strain and supporting defence and infrastructure outlays. The macro easing enhances Security Independence via better fiscal capacity and reduces vulnerability to external lenders’ terms, improving Independence from External Political Control. (No material shift on Muslim Unity, Shariah vs Liberal or Anti-Zionist measures.) (Reuters)

Pivot optics: Beijing’s Xiangshan Forum:
 Nigeria’s confirmed attendance at China’s flagship security forum underscores Abuja’s multi-alignment—courting non-Western defence ties without reform conditionalities. Engagement offers access to doctrine exchanges, UAV/OPV technologies, and training channels that diversify beyond US/UK pipelines. Net effect: incremental gains in Security Independence (alternative sourcing) but a cautious watch on Independence from External Political Control if financing or kit creates long-term lock-in. Symbolically, participation buttresses Nigeria’s Regional Power Projection narrative. (Reuters)