Geopolitical Briefing: Lebanon – 21 September 2025

• Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem publicly invites Saudi Arabia to “open a new page,” proposing coordination against Israel amid regional escalation. (Reuters)
• Israel launches new waves of strikes on Hezbollah sites across south Lebanon; Lebanon reports fatalities and injuries from Sept 19–20 attacks. (Reuters)
• UNIFIL resumes humanitarian demining in the south after a two-year suspension due to cross-Blue Line fire. (UNIFIL)
• UNIFIL transfers 100+ vehicles/equipment to the LAF in Naqoura as capacity-building accelerates. (UNIFIL)
• UN urges Israel to refrain from further strikes and fully withdraw from Lebanese territory after peacekeepers and civilians were endangered. (United Nations Peacekeeping)

Hezbollah–Saudi “new page.”
Qassem’s overture is a notable tactical pivot: after years of hostility, Hezbollah signals willingness to coordinate with Riyadh against Israel. In Realist terms, this tests Muslim Unity (bridging Iran-aligned Hezbollah and a key Sunni power) while hedging Hezbollah’s isolation after bruising attrition with Israel. For Beirut’s leadership—constrained by anti-normalization public opinion—the move could ease regional financial/political isolation if it matures, but it also tightens Iran–Gulf competition inside Lebanon’s arena, complicating Independence from External Political Control. (Reuters)

Renewed Israeli strikes in the south.
The Sept 18–20 strikes sustain a pressure campaign to degrade Hezbollah’s southern infrastructure. Operationally, this keeps the frontier “hot” despite political tracks on disarmament; strategically, it reinforces Hezbollah’s Anti-Zionist posture and narrows the LAF’s room to assert a monopoly of force without being drawn into confrontation. Civilian casualties reported by Lebanese authorities underscore the sovereignty cost and the challenge to Territorial Sovereignty and Border Security Against Israel. (Reuters)

UNIFIL demining restart.
Resuming humanitarian demining after a two-year pause is a concrete, state-aligned security deliverable. It reduces latent risk to civilians and patrolling forces, enabling LAF presence and movement south of the Litani. This modestly advances Security Independence and strengthens the state’s practical authority on the ground—provided exchanges of fire don’t again halt operations. (UNIFIL)

UNIFIL → LAF equipment handover.
The transfer of 100+ vehicles and other kit to the LAF is a material step toward transitioning from an international buffer to Lebanese enforcement capacity. It incrementally improves mobility, logistics, and patrol credibility in the south, supporting the strategic priority of Balancing Hezbollah’s Military Power with State Authority. The trade-off: enhanced capacity arrives via external enablers, tempering gains in Independence from External Political Control. (UNIFIL)

UN warning to Israel.
The UN’s call to refrain from further strikes and to withdraw from Lebanese territory sharpens the legal/diplomatic framing of Blue Line incidents. While unlikely to change Israeli targeting calculus on its own, it bolsters Beirut’s diplomatic leverage and narrative on Territorial Sovereignty, and—if paired with LAF/UNIFIL ground progress—could create political space for de-escalation without conceding on the disarmament file. (United Nations Peacekeeping)