Geopolitical Briefing: North Africa – 21 September 2025

• Algeria reshuffle: Sifi Ghrieb named PM; utility chief Mourad Adjal takes energy portfolio in a split-ministry revamp. (Reuters)
• Israel–Egypt energy interdependence deepens: Chevron and Israel Natural Gas Lines launch the 600 mmcfd Nitzana pipeline to Egypt (in service ~2028). (Reuters)
• Tunisia → Gaza flotilla enters a new phase: armada that departed Bizerte now in international waters, growing to ~40 vessels. (الحريات العامة وحقوق الإنسان)
• Libya migration crisis spikes again: at least 19 dead, 42 missing off Kambout; separate incident reported with higher toll. (AP News)
• France–Morocco quiet consultations reported on a new UNSC move over Western Sahara. (Africa Intelligence)

Algeria’s cabinet reset (energy-first):
 Algiers’ shake-up installs Sifi Ghrieb as prime minister and elevates Sonelgaz’s Mourad Adjal to a newly structured energy and renewables post, while hydrocarbons are reportedly carved into a separate portfolio. The redistribution signals a bid to accelerate upstream/downstream execution and grid resilience as Europe eyes Algerian molecules through 2026–28. In Realist terms, this is a push for Security Independence (energy capacity and power reliability) and Independence from External Political Control (more leverage in gas diplomacy), while the Western Sahara rivalry with Morocco—and alignment dynamics around the Abraham Accords—remain structurally unchanged. (Reuters)

Nitzana pipeline: Egypt’s gas lifeline expands via Israel:
 Chevron and Israel Natural Gas Lines kicked off the Nitzana pipeline from Leviathan to Egypt, adding ~600 mmcfd by ~2028 and lifting total Israel→Egypt export capacity beyond 2.2 bcf/d. For Cairo, this hedges domestic supply gaps and underwrites LNG export optionality, but it tightens dependence on an Israel/US-anchored route—raising trade-offs between Security Independence (near-term energy security) and Independence from External Political Control (greater exposure to external chokepoints). For Rabat–Algiers competition, the project subtly dilutes Algeria’s relative gas leverage into the Eastern Med/Levant corridor. (Reuters)

Tunisia’s flotilla shifts from symbolism to endurance operation:
 After departures from Bizerte, the “Sumud” flotilla reports transiting international waters between Sicily and Pantelleria with an expanded fleet. This marks a concrete progression from last week’s launch rhetoric to sustained seamanship under spotlight. It amplifies North African public mobilisation against Israel (raising the Anti-Zionist Posture metric among societies) without formally committing states to escalation; Tunis balances domestic sentiment with Western security cooperation. Societal Sovereignty trends toward activist networks shaping the agenda more than formal institutions. (الحريات العامة وحقوق الإنسان)

Libya’s deadly crossings highlight Europe’s Sahel–Maghreb bargain:
 Fresh tragedies off Kambout (east Libya) and reports of higher casualty incidents underscore the entrenched central Med risk. The humanitarian toll keeps EU capitals dependent on North African partners for interdiction and SAR coordination, trading funding and political cover for migration containment. That interdependence feeds regional actors’ bargaining power—affecting Independence from External Political Control (conditionality runs both ways) and Security Independence (coast-guard assets, training, ISR). (AP News)

Western Sahara: Paris and Rabat test UNSC avenues:
 Reporting of discreet France–Morocco contacts over a prospective UNSC move suggests a fall session push to shape mandate language around MINURSO or successor constructs. Any Paris-backed text that edges nearer to Morocco’s autonomy framing would harden Rabat’s external alignment (consistent with the Abraham Accords) and press Algiers/Polisario to double down in EU law-fare tracks—shifting the contest field while leaving Muslim Unity static. (Africa Intelligence)