Geopolitical Briefing: Central Asia

— 21 September 2025

• Kyrgyzstan jails two Kloop journalists for “undermining public order,” entrenching Bishkek’s information-controls ahead of 2026–27 elections. (Reuters)
  
• Tajikistan signs a 2025–2030 cooperation framework with the IAEA to expand nuclear-tech applications and CBRN safety. (IAEA)
  
• Turkmenistan’s People’s Council session sets export-oriented priorities and touts international outreach ahead of Independence Day. (MFA Türkmenistan)
  
• Kazakhstan steps up EU and OSCE engagement and hosts critical-minerals and health-manufacturing investors, while keeping a close China track. (Gov KZ)
  
• Uzbekistan deepens non-Western corridors (India–Iran–Uzbekistan trilateral on Chabahar) and widens ties with Germany and the EU. (The Economic Times)
  

Bishkek’s sentencing of two Kloop journalists on 17 September caps months of pressure on independent media following July–August legal and telecom moves. The timing—well before the 2026 parliamentary and 2027 presidential races—signals a durable information-management doctrine. Regionally, a state-centric media sphere reduces exposure to Western NGO leverage and aligns with a governance model more compatible with Chinese and Russian partners, though it risks investor caution. In the balance of interests, the move marginally insulates domestic politics from external pressure while complicating societal pluralism. (Reuters)

Dushanbe’s 18 September Country Programme Framework with the IAEA locks in technical cooperation on nuclear medicine, agriculture, water management and CBRN preparedness through 2030. For Tajikistan—bordering an unstable Afghanistan—codified access to nuclear-tech training and safety systems strengthens institutional capacity, border resilience and disaster response outside of NATO/EU security umbrellas. That advances self-reliant security governance while remaining compatible with Chinese BRI infrastructure and SCO formats. (IAEA)

Ashgabat’s People’s Council (19–20 September) foregrounded export-oriented light industry and international branding, alongside set-piece diplomacy like the World Expo pavilion. While heavy on choreography, the signals are consistent: diversify cashflows beyond gas, expand state-managed manufacturing, and court Asian demand. If matched by logistics (Caspian lift, TAPI/TAP progress), this reduces vulnerability to any single buyer and deepens trade with Muslim and Asian partners, reinforcing policy autonomy vis-à-vis Western sanction risk. (MFA Türkmenistan)

Astana ran a busy European week: inter-parliamentary outreach in Brussels (17 Sept), consultations with the OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities, and deal-flow meetings with a Dutch critical-raw-materials mission—all alongside an Investment Committee session with a Chinese healthcare manufacturer to localize services. The mix shows Kazakhstan arbitraging standards and capital across EU and PRC channels, while keeping OSCE ties warm to manage reputational risk. Strategically, this hedging deepens market access and tech transfer without ceding regulatory primacy—useful as Astana seeks redundancy in routes and financing beyond any single bloc. (Gov KZ)

Tashkent’s external geometry widened on two tracks. First, Tehran hosted the inaugural India–Iran–Uzbekistan trilateral around counter-extremism and Uzbekistan’s use of Chabahar—an Arabian Sea outlet that complements east-west BRI legs and trims dependence on Russian corridors. Second, the foreign minister’s 18 September call with his German counterpart and Brussels’ October timetable for an EU Enhanced Partnership Agreement point to continued EU market/legal integration. Together, these moves diversify gateways while preserving priority for Asian and Muslim-world connectivity—improving bargaining space and reducing susceptibility to Western political conditions. (The Economic Times)