Geopolitical Briefing: Pakistan – 27 September 2025

• White House meeting: Sharif and COAS Munir court U.S. investment; Trump signals warmer ties as Pakistan pitches energy, mining, tech. (Reuters)
• CPEC enters Phase-II: 14th JCC launches an updated roadmap; Beijing pledges to implement outcomes from Zardari’s China visit. (cpecinfo.com)
• Khyber/Tirah blasts kill ~24 (incl. civilians); rights groups and opposition demand a probe into alleged airstrikes. (Reuters)
• Energy + trade tilt: Pakistan’s top refiner orders a second cargo of U.S. crude; “massive oil deal” claims draw scrutiny. (Reuters)
• UNGA diplomacy: Sharif’s speech spotlights Kashmir/Gaza and backs U.S. mediation claims; India issues a sharp rebuttal. (Geo News)

Washington hosted an unusual tandem—PM Shehbaz Sharif with Army Chief Gen. Asim Munir—underscoring that security and economic files are fused. Islamabad’s ask was clear: channel U.S. capital into agriculture, energy, mining and tech; the optics and readouts point to a thaw after years of drift. Strategically, this diversifies external finance (tempering over-reliance on any one bloc) while preserving room to maneuver between poles—a useful hedge as Pakistan balances historic U.S. ties with deepening Chinese integration. (Reuters)

On the China track, the 14th CPEC Joint Cooperation Committee formally launched Phase-II, with commitments to publish an updated Long-Term Plan and to pivot toward industrialisation, technology and people-centric programs. Beijing’s ambassador publicly pledged full implementation of deliverables from President Zardari’s recent trip—an operational step beyond headline summits. This is a material progression that can anchor industry, logistics and corridors touching Xinjiang, but it also sharpens the imperative to harden security around Chinese personnel and assets, particularly in Balochistan. (cpecinfo.com)

In Khyber district’s Tirah valley, near the Afghan border, explosions killed roughly two dozen people including children; locals and national rights groups demanded an inquiry amid allegations of aerial bombing. Whether caused by an airstrike or a blast at a militant compound, the episode intensifies pressure on Islamabad’s counter-TTP campaign to demonstrate discrimination and civilian protection. The political cost of collateral harm is rising—and with it the risk of eroding domestic consent for sustained frontier operations. (Reuters)

Economically, Pakistan’s largest refiner Cnergyico locked a second U.S. crude cargo after finding the first commercially viable—evidence of practical, near-term energy diversification. In parallel, high-profile talk of a “massive” U.S.–Pakistan oil deal drew skepticism from sector analysts, reminding policymakers that messaging must be anchored in geology and financing realities. Net-net: incremental gains from trade and term supplies are tangible; grandiose exploration narratives remain unproven. (Reuters)

At the UN General Assembly, Sharif framed Pakistan’s line on Kashmir and Gaza and endorsed U.S. mediation claims—messaging calibrated to court Washington while signaling resolve to domestic audiences. India’s swift rebuttal kept diplomatic friction high. For Islamabad, the play is to leverage global forums to sustain narrative space on Kashmir without foreclosing the newly re-opened economic channel to the U.S., even as CPEC Phase-II accelerates with China. (Geo News)