Geopolitical Briefing: Nigeria – 27 September 2025

• Dangote Refinery announces layoffs; oil union PENGASSAN orders an immediate halt of crude/gas supplies to the plant. (Reuters)
  
• Dangote to suspend selling petrol in naira from 28 Sept, citing crude shortages and FX strain. (Reuters)
  
• Central Bank cuts the policy rate 50 bps to 27% (first cut since 2020) as disinflation firms. (Reuters)
  
• Securities regulator orders fund managers to shift to real-time bond valuation by 2027. (Reuters)
  
• Court orders IPOB leader Nnamdi Kanu to stand trial on terrorism charges, rejecting dismissal bid. (AP News)
  

Union shut-off and Dangote layoffs:
 PENGASSAN’s directive to halt crude and gas flows to the 650 kb/d Dangote refinery after contested layoffs escalates an industrial dispute into a national energy-security risk. Any prolonged supply choke would tighten domestic fuel availability, raise import needs, and pressure FX—undercutting fiscal space for defence and regional diplomacy. From a Realist lens, Security Independence is weakened (exposure to private-sector chokepoints), while Independence from External Political Control could erode if Abuja must lean on emergency imports or foreign traders. The episode also tests Abuja’s Regional Power Projection narrative: a self-sufficient fuel hub was central to leadership ambitions. (Reuters)

End of naira-settled petrol sales:
 Dangote’s halt to naira-denominated petrol sales from 28 Sept shifts marketers back toward dollar exposure, likely pressuring the naira and pump prices. Strategically, this reverses part of the de-dollarisation intent behind the NNPC crude-for-naira swap, narrowing macro room for security outlays. It dents Security Independence via costlier logistics and may increase susceptibility to External Political Control through FX-linked financing and import reliance—unless Abuja brokers a durable domestic-supply compact. (Reuters)

Monetary easing begins:
 The CBN’s 50 bp cut to 27% validates the recent disinflation trend and aims to support growth. If FX stability holds, lower funding costs could relieve defence procurement and infrastructure budgets, modestly reinforcing Security Independence. But easing into energy-market stress (refinery disruption, FX needs for imports) raises a policy-mix risk; if the naira softens, gains to Independence from External Political Control (via reduced reliance on IFIs/Eurobond markets) could stall. (Reuters)

SEC’s real-time bond pricing mandate:
 Moving the asset-management industry to mark bonds to market by 2027 deepens market transparency and should improve domestic debt pricing. Strategically, stronger local capital markets reduce over-reliance on external borrowing, supporting Independence from External Political Control and—indirectly—Security Independence by lowering sovereign rollover risk. Execution (market data, primary-dealer depth) will determine whether this reform attracts patient local capital or amplifies volatility. (Reuters)

Kanu case proceeds:
 The court’s decision that Nnamdi Kanu must stand trial keeps a volatile separatist dossier active. Abuja’s handling will influence stability in the southeast: credible due process can bolster Societal Sovereignty and internal legitimacy; heavy-handed optics risk fueling grievance and diverting security bandwidth. Regional signalling matters too—domestic cohesion underwrites Nigeria’s West African leadership posture. Muslim Unity and Anti-Zionist metrics are essentially unaffected. (AP News)