Geopolitical Briefing: North Africa – 27 September 2025

• Washington explicitly encourages U.S. investment in Moroccan-administered Western Sahara (25 Sep). (Reuters)
• Global Sumud flotilla reports drone harassment south of Greece—escalation from last week’s transit (24–25 Sep). (Al Jazeera)
• Morocco signals Amgala–Bir Moghrein crossing with Mauritania to open “within ~15 days,” tightening Sahara logistics (21 Sep). (Morocco World News)
• Libya’s NOC reports crude output hovering ~1.39 mb/d—highest band since August, despite western-Libya tensions (21–22 Sep). (Libyan Express)
• Algeria and Russia deepen energy/mining cooperation talks this week, aligning within OPEC+/GECF forums (24–25 Sep updates). (AL24 News)

U.S. green-lights Western Sahara investment
 A senior U.S. State Department figure publicly backed American companies operating “across all of Morocco,” explicitly including Western Sahara. This sharpens external political cover for Rabat’s autonomy plan and encourages capital into Saharan infrastructure (e.g., port/renewables), strengthening Morocco’s Security Independence via logistics and energy build-out, and its Independence from External Political Control through diversified Western finance. Given domestic sensitivities, Rabat will avoid triumphalism; regionally, Algiers/Polisario will double down on EU law-fare tracks to blunt the move. Anti-Zionist Posture tensions persist given Morocco’s Abraham Accords alignment. (Reuters)

Flotilla harassment shifts the risk calculus
 Reports of multi-drone harassment and comms jamming against Gaza-bound boats mark a material progression from last week’s mere presence at sea. Even without attribution, the incidents internationalise the arena (Italy/Spain deployed assets) and elevate the political cost of interdiction near EU waters. Societally, they intensify North African Anti-Zionist Posture and public mobilisation, while states (Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria) keep formal distance to avoid entanglement with Western partners. The episode underscores Europe’s dependency on Maghreb cooperation across security/migration lanes—affecting bargaining over aid, patrols and port access. (Al Jazeera)

Amgala corridor: from rumour to timetable
 Rabat’s economy minister flagged an opening window of roughly two weeks for the Amgala–Bir Moghrein road/crossing—if realised, a second artery to Mauritania beyond Guerguerat. This consolidates Morocco’s hold on interior Sahara lines of communication, advancing Security Independence (redundant routes, customs control) and Independence from External Political Control (re-routing Sahel trade via Moroccan-administered zones). Expect Algerian media/political pushback and a cautious Mauritanian posture to keep balance with Algiers. Muslim Unity effects remain limited; the move is primarily logistical-strategic. (Morocco World News)

Libya’s oil resilience amid western build-ups
 Fresh NOC prints around ~1.39 mb/d indicate sustained production despite militia tensions around Tripoli in recent weeks. Hydrocarbon continuity underpins Tripoli’s fiscal capacity and tempers external leverage, modestly improving Security Independence. But the structural risk persists: any western-Libya flare-up would immediately threaten midstream flows and Europe’s migration-for-security bargains. The balance remains fragile: higher output buys time; it doesn’t solve fragmentation. (Libyan Express)

Algeria–Russia energy axis inches forward
 Talks in recent days highlighted expanded cooperation across hydrocarbons, mining and power, nested in OPEC+/GECF coordination. For Algiers, this hedges against EU/U.S. pressure, reinforces Independence from External Political Control, and could channel capital/tech into upstream and grids—supporting Security Independence. It also signals to Rabat that Algeria’s counter-alignment options are deepening, even as Maghreb integration remains hostage to the Sahara dispute. (AL24 News)